####018006114#### AXPZ20 KNHC 240944 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Sep 24 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0920 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Narda is centered near 15.1N 110.5W at 24/0900 UTC, moving west at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Peak seas to around 30 ft are near the center of Narda. Satellite imagery show numerous strong convection from 13N to 16N between 108W and 113W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 08N to 18N between 98W and 116W. Narda is forecast to maintain its present westward motion for the next couple of days. Gradual weakening is expected today and tonight, followed by some slight strengthening late Thursday or Thursday night. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Narda NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 93W north of 08N, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N to 15N between 88W and 95W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia westward to northern Costa Rica, then northwestward to 12N93W and 14N101W, where it pauses. It resumes to the west of Narda at 10N114W and continues to 10N130W to 12N140W and westward from there. Numerous moderate to strong convection is seen from 03N to 09N E of 80W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on Hurricane Narda. Aside from marine conditions attributed to Hurricane Narda affecting the SW Mexican offshore waters, generally tranquil weather conditions prevail across the offshore waters of Baja California due to a weak pressure gradient associated with a ridge W of 127W. Light to gentle winds are ongoing along the Gulf of California and in the Tehuantepec region. Seas are moderate in Tehuatepec and slight in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, Narda will move to 15.1N 112.2W this afternoon, 15.2N 114.5W Thu morning, 15.5N 116.9W Thu afternoon, 15.9N 119.5W Fri morning, 16.6N 121.7W Fri afternoon, and 17.6N 123.3W Sat morning. Narda will change little in intensity as it moves near 19.4N 124.3W early Sun. Elsewhere, the pressure gradient will weaken as Narda tracks well away from the Baja California offshore zones through Fri allowing for moderate to locally fresh NW winds offshore of Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro to diminish. However, fresh to strong east to southeast winds are expected off Cabo Corrientes through early Thu afternoon. Before the winds diminish, seas are expected to build to 8 to 9 ft. Fresh southerly winds are expected to develop over most of the Gulf of California from Thu night into early Sat as low pressure deepens over extreme NW Mexico near the Arizona border. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The 06 UTC surface analysis depicts a rather weak pressure gradient over the region, which is allowing for moderate or lighter winds along with moderate seas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms SW of Guatemala and El Salvador are associated with the tropical wave described above. For the forecast, moderate to fresh northeast gap winds will pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo region through Thu. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh southerly winds will prevail over the waters south of the monsoon trough through Thu, then increase to fresh to strong speeds through early Fri afternoon before diminishing back to moderate to locally fresh speeds through Sun night. Mostly moderate seas in south to southwest swell are expected over the regional waters through the period. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for further information on Hurricane Narda. Hurricane Narda is near 15.1N 110.5W at 2 AM PDT, and is moving west at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 970 mb. Otherwise, a rather weak high pressure remains across the area with associated ridge covering the waters N of 20N and W of 127W. The related pressure gradient is generally allowing for gentle to locally moderate NE to E winds and moderate seas north of about 10N and W of 120W. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and moderate seas are elsewhere south of the monsoon trough. Moderate or lighter winds along with moderate seas are present over the remainder of the area. For the forecast, Narda will move to 15.1N 112.2W this afternoon, 15.2N 114.5W Thu morning, 15.5N 116.9W Thu afternoon, 15.9N 119.5W Fri morning, 16.6N 121.7W Fri afternoon, and 17.6N 123.3W Sat morning. Narda will change little in intensity as it moves near 19.4N 124.3W early Sun. Increasing winds and building seas are expected across the eastern waters as Hurricane Narda moves westward. Elsewhere in the basin, moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and moderate seas will remain south of the monsoon through the remainder of the week. Beginning late on Fri and into the weekend, northerly swell is expected to spread moderate to rough seas to the north-central waters, roughly between 120W and 133W as it merges with southerly swell generated by Narda. $$ Ramos