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AXNT20 KNHC 241026

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1215 UTC Wed Sep 24 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

1020 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Atlantic Gale Warning associated with Invest AL93:

A rather robust central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed from

near 22N52W to 10.5N50W, or about 600 nm east of the Leeward

Islands. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is from

15N to 22N between 48W and 532W. Environmental conditions are

forecast to be favorable for further development, and a tropical

depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while

the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward into the

western tropical Atlantic, well north of the Leeward Islands. This

system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation during the

48 hours. Regardless of tropical cyclone development, winds may

reach gale force along with rough seas within 36 to 48 hours when

the anticipated low pressure is about 300 nm to the northeast of 

Leeward Islands, moving to the north-northwest. 



Heavy Rainfall Expected for some sections of the eastern 

and North-Central Caribbean Islands:

A vigorous tropical wave (Invest AL94) is analyzed from near

22N64W to 10N64W. Along and behind it, disorganized scattered

moderate to isolated strong convection is from 11N to 20N between

55W and 64W. This wave is expected to move west-northwestward at

15 to 20 kt, spreading heavy rainfall and gusty winds into Puerto

Rico and the Virgin Islands today, and across the Dominican 

Republic beginning tonight. The system is then expected to slow 

down and turn northwestward when it reaches the southwestern 

Atlantic in a couple of days. Environmental conditions are 

forecast to be more conducive for development late this week and 

weekend, and a tropical depression is likely to form when the 

disturbance is in the vicinity of the Bahamas. Interests in the 

Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and

Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas should monitor the progress of 

this system. This system has a low chance of formation of tropical

cyclone formation during the next 48 hours.



Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the 

National Hurricane Center at website: 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7 for more

information on both systems.

     

...TROPICAL WAVES...



Aside from the tropical waves discussed above:



A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has been relocated to near 

37W from 02N to 13N moving west at 15-20 kt. No significant 

convection is depicted at this time in association to this wave.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic along the coast of

Africa near 18N16W, and extends southwestward to 06N35W. Aside 

from convection related to the tropical waves, scattered moderate 

convection is noted 08N to 12N between 25W and 30W.



...GULF OF AMERICA...



A rather extensive upper-level trough extends southwestward from

the southeastern U.S. across the eastern Gulf to the northern 

Yucatan Peninsula. Divergence aloft east of the trough supporting 

a few showers over the south-central Gulf. This activity is 

showing a weakening trend during the past few hours. Scattered

showers and thunderstorms are also active over the far southwest

Gulf off Veracruz. Mexico. Elsewhere, a 1018 mb high is analyzed 

along the eastern Gulf near 27N83W. It is supporting light to 

gentle variable winds with 1 to 2 ft seas for the central and 

eastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits. Gentle to moderate E 

to SE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail across the western Gulf,

including the Bay of Campeche.



For the forecast, the weak high pressure across the eastern U.S. will

continue to extend a ridge into the NE Gulf into Thu to support 

gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight seas across the Gulf 

waters. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will enter the northwest 

Gulf by early Fri, reach from the northeast Gulf to near Cabo 

Rojo, Mexico by Sat evening, then weaken and stall over the 

southeast Gulf by late Sun. 



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



PLease read the Special Features section about significant

rainfall across the Lesser Antilles and near Puerto Rico.



An upper level trough is supporting isolated to scattered 

moderate convection over the Windward Passage and the Cayman

Islands. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also active

across the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to locally strong easterly 

trades and seas of 6 to 8 ft are present at the south- central 

basin. Mainly moderate E trades and 4 to 6 ft seas are seen across

the north- central and eastern parts of the basin, and at the 

Gulf of Honduras. Light to gentle winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft are 

noted at the lee of Cuba, and near Costa Rica and Panama. Gentle 

to moderate east to southeast winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are over

the rest of the Caribbean Sea.



For the forecast, expect moderate to fresh trade winds across the

south-central Caribbean through this morning ahead of the 

tropical wave. These winds will diminish late today as the 

tropical wave moves across the central basin. Looking ahead to 

later in the week, expect moderate winds and seas across the 

eastern Caribbean Thu through Sun, with generally light breezes 

and slight seas elsewhere. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



Please read the Special Features section at the very beginning on

potential tropical formation in the central and western Atlantic.



Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active north of Hispaniola

to 28N between 65W and 70W, associated with an upper trough over

the region.  



Fresh to strong E to SE winds and rough seas are active within 90

nm north of the Leeward Islands, associated with Invest 94L, 

described in the Special Features section. Fresh to strong E to SE

winds and rough seas are associated with Invest 93L are active

from 16N to 21N between 49W and 55W. 



Although most of the impact of Hurricane Gabrielle are well north

of the discussion area, NE swell of 7 to 9 ft associated with the

hurricane are reaching as far south as 29N between 50W and 58W.



The pattern elsewhere is controlled by a modest subtropical ridge,

supporting gentle to moderate breezes and 4 to 6 ft north of 25N,

and moderate to fresh trade winds and 6 to 7 ft south of 25N. The

except is fresh NE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas off Morocco and south

of the Canary Islands to 20N. 



For the forecast west of 55W, expect fresh to strong wind and 

rough seas south of 24N associated with a pair of tropical waves 

moving into the region. The western wave will bring fresh to 

strong winds and rough seas to the waters from north of Puerto 

Rico to the Bahamas through Sun. A tropical depression is likely 

to form from the eastern wave Thu or Fri as it moves to the north 

of the Leeward Islands, then tracks to the N-NW through the 

upcoming weekend. Regardless of tropical cyclone development, a 

gale warning is in effect for this disturbance starting late Thu 

when it is about 300 nm to the northeast of the Leeward Islands 

and moving to the north-northwest. 



$$

Christensen