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ABPW10 PGTW 110600

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH

PACIFIC OCEANS/110600Z-120600ZMAY2025//

REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/102221ZMAY2025//

AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//

RMKS/

1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):

   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.

   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):

   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:

      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.8N

138.0E, APPROXIMATELY 220 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GOVE AIRPORT. ANIMATED

MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 101815Z SSMIS 91 GHZ

MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER

(LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN

PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 93P IS

IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG

POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM

(28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN

POOR AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF DEPICTING A SLOW SOUTHWARD TRACK AND FURTHER

INTENSIFICATION WHILE GFS DEPICTS A WESTWARD TRACK AND LITTLE

DEVELOPMENT. THE WINDOW FOR DEVELOPMENT IS SHORT, DUE TO INCREASING

DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST AFTER TAU 24. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL

PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE

DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS

REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 102230) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR

10.9S 156.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.6S 156.3E, APPROXIMATELY 228 NM

SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONIARA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE

IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICT A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER

(LLCC) OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION CURRENTLY BEING SHEARED FROM THE

SOUTHWEST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES MARGINALLY

FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE

TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. FURTHERMORE,

MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR

ENTRAINMENT ARE THE MAIN HINDRANCES AGAINST THE DEVELOPMENT OF 94P.

GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA OF

CONVECTION WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT

24 HOURS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AGREES ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK WITH ECENS

BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE OVERALL IN TERMS OF DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM

SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA

LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE

DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS

REMAINS LOW.

      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.

   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:

      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR

19.6S 171.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.8S 176.0E, APPROXIMATELY 148 NM

NORTH OF NADA, FIJI. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A

SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL

AND MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)

SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ASYMMETRIC CIRCULATION UNDER VERY STRONG

WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (OVER 50 KTS) DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN

UPPER-LEVEL JET MAX TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. CONVECTION IS BEING

VIGOROUSLY SHEARED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER.

ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 95P IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE

ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL TRANSITION DUE TO THE HIGH VERTICAL WIND

SHEAR AND SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ALONG THE ENTIRE WESTERN

PORTION OF THE SYSTEM, OFFSET BY WARM (27-28 C) SEA SURFACE

TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON A FAST SOUTHEASTWARD

TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH AN INCREASINGLY ELONGATED WIND FIELD

AND THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAINING WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 33 TO 38 KNOTS.

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE

POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN

THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.//

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