####018004620####
AXPZ20 KNHC 110841

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1005 UTC Sun May 11 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0830 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A late season gap wind event is ongoing across the

Tehuantepec region as a ridge continues to build across the eastern

slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico, and over the western

Gulf of America. Winds are currently reaching minimal gale force,

as observed in a recent scatterometer satellite pass, and these 

conditions are expected to last through Mon morning. Building 

seas to around 13 ft are expected with this event today, with the

plume of seas in excess of 8 ft reaching as far west as 100W on 

Sun.



Climatologically, the first gale-force event of the season 

occurs in mid-October, with the final gale-force event occurring 

in late March or early April. Occasionally, gale-force events 

may occur as early as September, and as late as May. 



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 10N84W to 10N90W to 08N100W. The

ITCZ extends from 08N100W to 08N130W to 05N140W. Scattered

moderate to isolated strong convection is active north of 05N and

east of 82W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 08N 

to 13N between 95W and 105W. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Weakening high pressure off California is supporting gentle to

moderate breezes and off Baja California, and gentle breezes

elsewhere outside of the Tehuantepec region. Seas are 3 to 5 ft

over open waters outside of the Tehuantepec area, except 1 to 3

ft in the Gulf of California. Scattered showers and thunderstorms

are active off the coast of Chiapas. 



For the forecast, aside from the gale-force gap wind event in the

Gulf f Tehuantepec described in the Special Features section, a 

weak cold front will move into Baja California Norte by late Tue,

then dissipate. High pressure building behind the front will 

enhance the NW winds to fresh conditions west of the Baja 

California peninsula, along with large NW swell. Moderate or 

weaker winds and moderate seas, primarily in SW swell, will 

prevail elsewhere.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Divergent flow aloft is supporting an active line of showers and

thunderstorms along and offshore of Guatemala this evening. A

large cluster of thunderstorms is also active off northwest

Colombia and Panama, with isolated showers and thunderstorms off

Costa Rica and Nicaragua. An recent scatterometer satellite pass

confirmed moderate gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo, and 

combined seas are likely 4 to 6 ft in that area. Gentle to 

moderate breezes persist elsewhere, with 3 to 5 ft seas. 



For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected in the

Papagayo region most of the forecast period, increasing to fresh

to strong speeds at night from Sun night through mid week. 

Elsewhere mainly light to gentle winds are expected through early

next week, except between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands 

where gentle to moderate southerly winds will persist. Seas 

generated in the Tehuantepec region will propagate across the 

western offshore waters off Guatemala on Sun. Slight to moderate

seas, primarily in SW swell, will prevail elsewhere over the 

next several days. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....



Weak ridging covers the waters north of 20N, supporting moderate

to fresh trade winds from 07N to 20N west of 120W. Combined seas

in that area are 6 to 9 ft, with a component of N swell. Gentle

to moderate breezes and 5 to 7 ft are noted elsewhere, in a mix

of swell. 



For the forecast, a weak cold front will move into the US west

coast and Baja California Norte through late Tue. High pressure

will build in the wake of the front, and this pattern will

support moderate to fresh NE winds north of 05N and west of 120W

through early next week. Looking ahead, 8 to 9 ft NW swell will 

move into the waters north of 25N and west of 120W Tue and Wed, 

before dissipating. 



$$

Christensen