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AXPZ20 KNHC 111548

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1605 UTC Sun May 11 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

1500 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A late season gap wind event is 

ongoing across the Tehuantepec region as a ridge continues to 

build across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in 

Mexico, and over the western Gulf of America. Winds are currently

reaching minimal gale force, based on latest scatterometer data,

and these conditions are expected to last through Mon morning. 

Building seas to around 13 ft are expected with this event today,

with the plume of seas in excess of 8 ft reaching as far west as

100W on Sun.



Climatologically, the first gale-force event of the season 

occurs in mid-October, with the final gale-force event occurring 

in late March or early April. Occasionally, gale-force events 

may occur as early as September, and as late as May. 



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from a 1009 mb low pressure located 

over northern Colombia near 10N75W to 09N100W to 07N125W. The 

ITCZ continues from 07N125W to 07N120W to beyond 06N140W. 

Clusters of moderate to isolated strong convection are noted N of

05N between 78W and 82W, including the entrance to the Gulf of

Panama, from 08N to 12N between 96W and 103W, and from 05N to 

09N between 108W and 121W. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



A ridge is supporting gentle to moderate NW to N winds across the

offshore waters of Baja California, and light to gentle winds  

elsewhere outside of the Tehuantepec region. Seas are 3 to 5 ft 

over open waters outside of the Tehuantepec area, except 1 to 3 

ft in the Gulf of California. 



For the forecast, aside from the gale-force gap wind event in the

Gulf of Tehuantepec described in the Special Features section, a

weak cold front will move into Baja California Norte by late 

Tue, then dissipate. High pressure building behind the front will

enhance the NW winds to fresh conditions west of the Baja California

peninsula, along with large NW swell. Moderate or weaker winds 

and moderate seas, primarily in SW swell, will prevail elsewhere.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



A cluster of moderate to locally strong convection is near the

entrance to the Gulf of Panama. The most recent scatterometer 

satellite pass confirmed moderate gap winds across the Gulf of 

Papagayo, and combined seas are likely 4 to 6 ft in that area. 

Gentle to moderate winds persist elsewhere, with 3 to 5 ft seas.



For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected in the

Papagayo region most of the forecast period, increasing to fresh

to strong speeds at night from Sun night through mid week. 

Elsewhere mainly light to gentle winds are expected through early

next week, except between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands 

where gentle to moderate southerly winds will persist. Seas 

generated in the Tehuantepec region will propagate across the 

western offshore waters off Guatemala on Sun. Slight to moderate

seas, primarily in SW swell, will prevail elsewhere over the 

next several days. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....



A weak ridge covers the waters north of the ITCZ and W of 110W 

20N, supporting moderate to fresh trade winds from 06N to 20N 

west of 120W. Combined seas in that area are 6 to 9 ft, with a 

component of NW swell. Gentle to moderate winds and 5 to 7 ft 

are noted elsewhere, in a mix of swell. 



For the forecast, a weak cold front will move into the US west

coast and Baja California Norte through late Tue. High pressure

will build in the wake of the front, and this pattern will

support moderate to fresh NE winds north of 05N and west of 120W

through early next week. Looking ahead, 8 to 9 ft NW swell will 

move into the waters north of 25N and west of 120W Tue and Wed, 

before dissipating. 



$$

GR