####018004180#### AXNT20 KNHC 111617 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Sun May 11 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa near 11N15W and continues southwestward to 03N22W. The ITCZ continues from 02N22W to 01S45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02S to 04N between 13W and 23W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 07N between 26N and 46W. GULF OF AMERICA... A stationary front extends from the Florida panhandle to the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is E of the front. Fresh to locally strong winds are E of the front and N of 26N. Moderate winds are elsewhere E of the front. Gentle to moderate winds are W of the front. Seas are 4-6 ft E of the front, and 3-5 ft W of the front. For the forecast, scattered thunderstorms along and east of the stationary front will continue through Mon, producing locally stronger winds and higher seas. The front will drift eastward early this week, exiting the basin on Tue. Farther west, a trough will move across the northern Gulf of America tonight through Mon, supporting pulsing moderate to fresh W to NW winds across the northern basin into Tue. High pressure will build across the Gulf by midweek. A tightening pressure gradient between deepening low pressure in the central United States and the aforementioned high will support fresh to locally strong S winds offshore of Texas and Mexico Tue through late week. CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between a ridge of high pressure N of the area and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong winds in the central Caribbean. Moderate winds are in the E Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds are in the W Caribbean. Seas are in the 7-11 ft range in the central Caribbean, and 4-6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and rough to very rough seas are expected across the central Caribbean, including through the Windward Passage, through early Wed as a tight pressure gradient prevails between a ridge of high pressure to the north and the Colombian low. Periods of near-gale force winds will be possible offshore of Colombia and through the Gulf of Venezuela each afternoon and night. Pulsing moderate to fresh E winds and locally rough seas are likely across the Atlantic Passages into the eastern Caribbean through midweek. Winds and seas will slowly diminish by late week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure dominates the Atlantic discussion waters, anchored by a 1031 mb high centered near 34N42W. Moderate to fresh winds prevail S of 22N between 15W and 16W. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-9 ft range E of 60W, and 4-6 ft W of 60W. For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh SE winds will prevail offshore of Florida and north of the Greater Antilles today. Fresh to strong SE to S winds are expected to develop tonight and continue into Tue offshore of central and northern Florida as a tightening pressure gradient develops between high pressure in the western Atlantic and a low pressure in the southeastern United States. A cold front associated with the low pressure system will move offshore of the southeastern U.S. on Tue and meander through midweek, before weakening and lifting northeastward. Pulsing moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail south of 25N this week. Locally rough seas in NE swell will impact the waters near the Lesser Antilles and across the passages into the Caribbean through late week. $$ AL