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AXPZ20 KNHC 120333

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0405 UTC Mon May 12 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0300 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Gale-force gap winds will

persist across the Gulf of Tehuantepec into Mon, with a plume of

rough seas reaching as far as 420 nm offshore. Winds and seas 

will diminish through Mon as high pressure north of the area 

weakens and shifts eastward. 



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 08N95W to 07N130W. The

ITCZ extends from 07N130W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate

to isolated strong convection is active from 09N to 13N between

95W and 110W.  



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



A ridge is supporting gentle to moderate NW to N winds across the

offshore waters of Baja California, and light to gentle winds  

elsewhere outside of the Tehuantepec region. Seas are 3 to 5 ft 

over open waters outside of the Tehuantepec area, except 1 to 3 

ft in the Gulf of California. 



For the forecast, aside from the gale-force gap wind event in the Gulf

of Tehuantepec described in the Special Features section, a weak

cold front will move into Baja California Norte by late Tue, 

then dissipate. High pressure building behind the front will 

enhance the NW winds to fresh conditions west of the Baja 

California peninsula, along with large NW swell. Seas of to 10 ft

are expected N of Punta Eugenia Tue night into Wed. Moderate or 

weaker winds and moderate seas, primarily in SW swell, will 

prevail elsewhere.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Moderate to fresh NE winds persist across the Papagayo region to

about 90W with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Light and variable winds are 

observed elsewhere, with the exception of gentle to locally 

moderate southerly winds between Ecuador and the Galapagos 

Islands. Seas of 3 to 5 ft dominate the remainder of the offshore

forecast waters. 



For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected in the

Papagayo region through Fri night, increasing to fresh to strong

speeds at night from through mid week. Elsewhere mainly light to

gentle winds are expected through early this week, except 

between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands where gentle to 

moderate southerly winds will persist. Seas generated in the 

Tehuantepec region will continue to propagate across the western 

offshore waters off Guatemala overnight. Slight to moderate 

seas, primarily in SW swell, will prevail elsewhere through the 

middle of the week. Looking ahead, expect moderate to rough seas,

in long period SW swell, between Ecuador and the Galapagos 

Islands Wed through Fri. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....



A ridge covers the waters north of the ITCZ and W of 110W, supporting

moderate to locally fresh trade winds from 07N to 15N west of 

120W. Earlier altimeter satellite data showed up to 8 ft seas

persisting from 05N to 15N, west of 135W. Gentle to moderate 

winds and 5 to 7 ft are noted elsewhere, in a mix of swell. 



For the forecast, a weak cold front will move into the US west

coast and Baja California Norte through late Tue. High pressure

will build in the wake of the front, and this pattern will support

moderate to fresh NE winds north of 05N and west of 120W through

early this week. Looking ahead, 8 to 9 ft NW swell will move 

into the waters north of 25N and west of 120W Tue and Wed, before

dissipating. 



$$

Christensen