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ABPW10 PGTW 120330

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH

PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/120330Z-120600ZMAY2025//

REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/120151ZMAY2025//

AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//

RMKS/

1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):

   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.

   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):

   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:

      (1) AT 12MAY25 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (THIRTYTWO) WAS

LOCATED NEAR 8.5S 137.9E, APPROXIMATELY 478 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF

DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST

SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS

GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 120300) FOR FURTHER

DETAILS.

      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:

      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR

10.6S 155.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4S 156.0E, APPROXIMATELY 242 NM

WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONIARA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE

IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICT A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER

(LLCC) OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION CURRENTLY BEING SHEARED FROM THE

SOUTHWEST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES MARGINALLY

FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE

TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, OFFSET BY MODERATE

TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT.

GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA OF

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD WITH GRADUAL

DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AGREES ON A

SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK WITH ECENS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF

DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23

KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE

POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN

THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.

   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:

      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR

19.7S 176.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.9S 179.8W, APPROXIMATELY 269NM

WESTNORTHWEST OF TONGA. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A

SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL

AND MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)

SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ASYMMETRIC CIRCULATION UNDER VERY STRONG

WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (OVER 50 KTS) DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN

UPPER-LEVEL JET MAX TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. CONVECTION IS BEING

VIGOROUSLY SHEARED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER.

ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 95P IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE

ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL TRANSITION DUE TO THE EXTREMELY HIGH VERTICAL

WIND SHEAR AND SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ALONG THE ENTIRE

WESTERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM, OFFSET BY WARM (27-28 C) SEA SURFACE

TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON A FAST SOUTHEASTWARD

TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH AN INCREASINGLY ELONGATED WIND FIELD

AND THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAINING WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 38 TO 43 KNOTS.

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE

POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN

THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.

3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPDATED PARA. 2.A.(1) WITH 32P FINAL

WARNING INFORMATION.//

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