####018001917####
ABPW10 PGTW 121200

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH

PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/121200Z-130600ZMAY2025//

RMKS/

1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):

   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.

   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):

   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:

      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR

10.7S 156.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4S 155.6E, APPROXIMATELY 266 NM

WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONIARA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY

(EIR) DEPICT A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)

OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION CURRENTLY BEING SHEARED FROM THE

SOUTHWEST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES MARGINALLY

FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE

TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, OFFSET BY MODERATE TO

HIGH (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE

SOUTHWEST. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE

AREA OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD WITH SLIGHT

INTENSIFICATION. ENSEMBLE MODELS ALSO AGREE ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK

WHILE THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS MORE UNCERTAIN, WITH ECENS BEING THE

MOST AGGRESSIVE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS

ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED

TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT

TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.

   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: REMOVED 32P INFORMATION DUE TO FINAL

WARNING INFORMATION.//

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