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AXPZ20 KNHC 121439

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1605 UTC Mon May 12 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

1430 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 10N113W to 07N122W. 

The ITCZ continues from 07N122W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered 

moderate convection is noted from 02N to 06N E of 90W. Scattered

moderate and isolated strong convection is active from 04N to 

12N between 100W and 120W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec have diminished below gale

force, with fresh to near- gale winds currently prevailing. Seas

are in the 8-10 ft range in this area. Elsewhere, a ridge 

extends across the waters W of the Baja California peninsula. The

pressure gradient between the ridge and a trough over the Gulf 

of California is supporting gentle to moderate winds W of the 

Baja peninsula as well as in the Gulf of California. Light to

gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range W of

Baja California Norte, and 5-6 ft elsewhere over the open waters

off Mexico. Seas of 3 ft or less are in the Gulf of California.



For the forecast, fresh to near- gale winds and rough seas in 

the Gulf of Tehuantepec will diminish through tonight as high 

pressure north of the area weakens and shifts eastward. A weak 

cold front will move into Baja California Norte by late Tue, then

dissipate. High pressure building in the wake of the front will 

freshen winds west of the Baja California peninsula through mid 

week, with large NW swell into Fri. Moderate or weaker winds and 

moderate seas, primarily in SW swell, will prevail elsewhere.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Fresh to strong NE winds persist across the Papagayo region to 

about 91W with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Gentle to locally moderate

winds are noted between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Light

and variable winds are observed elsewhere. Seas of 3 to 5 ft 

dominate the remainder of the offshore forecast waters. 



For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected 

in the Papagayo region through Fri, pulsing to fresh to strong at

night through mid week. Gentle to moderate winds will persist 

between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Elsewhere mainly light

to gentle winds are expected through early this week before 

increasing S of the monsoon trough midweek. Slight to moderate 

seas, primarily in SW swell, will prevail elsewhere through the 

middle of the week. Expect moderate to rough seas in long period 

SW swell between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands Wed through 

Fri. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....



A ridge covers the waters north of 20N and west of 110W. The

pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the

vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to locally fresh 

trade winds N of the ITCZ to 15N west of 120W. Seas over these

waters are in the 6-8 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds and 5 

to 7 ft are noted elsewhere in a mix of swell. 



For the forecast, a weak cold front will move into the US west

coast and Baja California Norte through late Tue. High pressure

will build in the wake of the front, and this pattern will support

moderate to fresh NE winds north of 05N and west of 120W through

early this week. Seas in the 8 to 9 ft range in NW swell will 

move into the waters north of 25N and west of 120W Tue and Wed, 

before dissipating. 



$$

AL