####018006987####
AXNT20 KNHC 121700

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1815 UTC Mon May 12 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

1600 UTC.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast and 

along the border between Guinea and Sierra Leone near 09N13W and 

continues southwestward to 06N17.5W. The ITCZ continues from 

06N17.5W to 02.5N29W to the coast of Brazil near 01N50. Scattered 

moderate isolated strong convection is present south of 07.5N 

between 02W and 54W.



GULF OF AMERICA...



A cold front extends across the Florida Panhandle from near

Tallahassee southward to near 26N84W then S-SW through the Yucatan

Channel and into the NW Caribbean Sea. Clusters of scattered 

showers and thunderstorms were ahead of the front earlier this

morning, but have shifted eastward across south and central

Florida in recent hours and into the adjacent Atlantic waters.

Broken clouds and scattered showers prevail across the Gulf waters

between the front and the west coasts of Florida and Cuba. The 

front eventually spirals into a deep layered 1010 mb surface low 

over western Mississippi. A surface trough extends from that low 

pressure southward across southeast Louisiana then turns westward 

across the adjacent coastal waters and into the central Texas 

coast. Scattered showers are along and within 75 nm ahead of the 

trough across the southeast Louisiana and Mississippi coastal 

waters. A narrow band of moderate to locally fresh SW winds

prevails to the SE of this trough, where seas are 3 to 5 ft. Light

anticyclonic winds have begun to develop across the south central

and southwest Gulf, behind the front. Elsewhere, moderate or 

weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail across the Gulf 

waters.



For the forecast, the front across the eastern Gulf will drift 

eastward today before exiting the basin on Tue. Scattered 

thunderstorms are expected along and east of the front today, with 

gusty and erratic winds and rapidly building seas possible near 

convection. Elsewhere, pulsing moderate to fresh W winds are 

expected across the northern Gulf through early Tue as a trough 

moves eastward over the region. Otherwise, high pressure will 

build over the basin this week. A strengthening pressure gradient 

between deepening low pressure in the central United States and 

the aforementioned high will support fresh to locally strong S to 

SE winds and rough seas offshore of Texas and Mexico Tue through 

late week. 



CARIBBEAN SEA... 



The pressure gradient between a ridge across the western Atlantic

and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong E winds in 

the central Caribbean, with winds strongest winds to near 30 kt

offshore of Colombia. Seas in this area are 8 to 11 ft. Moderate 

to fresh winds are in the E Caribbean where seas are 4 to 6 ft. 

Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are in the NW Caribbean E of 85W,

while a late season cold front has become stationary through the 

Yucatan Channel southward to the just off of the coast of Belize 

and into the interior Gulf of Honduras. A cluster of moderate to 

strong thunderstorms is east of the front and across the Gulf of 

Honduras, south of 18.5N between 83W and 86.5W, while smaller

isolated clusters are elsewhere ahead of the front northward to 

western Cuba. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are west of the 

front producing seas of 4 to 5 ft. Skies are fair to partly cloudy

across most of the remainder of the Caribbean, except for

scattered showers moving across the Windward Islands and into the

basin.



For the forecast, widespread fresh to strong E winds will occur 

over the central Caribbean through Tue afternoon as a tight 

pressure gradient prevails between the Colombian low and high 

pressure in the west central Atlantic. Winds will pulse to near-

gale-force through the Gulf of Venezuela and offshore of 

northwestern Colombia at night. Rough seas will accompany these 

winds, with localized very rough seas occurring near and to the 

west of the strongest winds. Winds and seas are expected to 

diminish midweek. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trade winds will 

pulse through late this week in the eastern Caribbean, supporting 

rough seas through the Atlantic passages into the eastern basin. 

Looking ahead, pulsing fresh to strong E winds will develop in the

Gulf of Honduras by midweek. 



ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A surface trough just east of the Windward Islands is analyzed 

from 12N61W to 16N58W, and is acting to trigger scattered showers

and thunderstorms east of the trough to 55W. in an area from 

14-17N between 52-56W. Otherwise, high pressure dominates much of

the Atlantic discussion waters, anchored by a 1027 mb high 

centered near 32N41W, and a second high of 1029 mb near 35N67W.

These highs are separated by an old frontal band extending through

31N60W to 27N67W. Scattered showers prevail on the eastern side of

this band. South of this broad ridge, moderate to fresh NE to E

trade winds prevail across the Atlantic south of 25N and east of

70W, where seas are 6 to 9 ft south of 20N and 4 to 5 ft between

20N and 25N. To the west of 70W moderate to fresh SE to S-Se winds

prevail into the Atlantic coastal waters. Bands of moderate to

strong thunderstorms occurring well ahead of the Gulf cold front

have shifted across Florida and the Straits of Florida this

morning and are now across the Atlantic waters west of 76W, from

the NW Bahamas northward. Seas are 4 to 6 ft across these waters.





For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong S to SE winds and 

rough seas will occur offshore of Florida today into Tue afternoon

as a strengthening pressure gradient develops between a cold 

front in the eastern Gulf of America and high pressure in the 

central Atlantic. Periods of near-gale force winds will be 

possible offshore of northern Florida tonight. The cold front will

move into the western Atlantic on Tue, and winds will turn to the

W behind the front and weaken, before the front lifts 

northeastward out of the region on Wed. Farther south, pulsing 

fresh to strong E winds are expected each afternoon and evening 

offshore of northern Hispaniola through Wed. Elsewhere, moderate 

to locally strong trade winds and rough seas in mixed NE and SE 

swell will prevail south of 25N this week, including across the 

Atlantic passages into the eastern Caribbean.



$$

Stripling