Expires:No;;619318 FXAK67 PAJK 011750 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 850 AM AKST Thu Jan 1 2026 .UPDATE... 18z Aviation Update A new year is bringing much better flight conditions to the region over the next 12 hours as snowfall and low CIGS begins to break apart. For Thursday morning, much of the region is VFR, with some TAF sites reporting MVFR CIGS from a shallow cloud deck near 1500 ft to 2500 ft and FG in the south. Expect most of the area to be fully VFR by this afternoon. Overnight a weak low will begin to slide southeast along our coast, brining light snow back to the Panhandle Friday morning, with MVFR CIGS and the potential for 2SM VSBY. Pelican/Elfin Cove toward Sitka are likely to see the heaviest snow showers. Wrangell has a thick fog layer moving back and forth through the Eastern Passage switching between VFR to LIFR 1/4SM OVC001 at times. This threat will break apart over the next hour or two. For the northern coast including Yakutat, the primary threat is heavy snow showers through the day with the simple message that VFR could quickly become IFR, to potentially near LIFR conditions at times. Snow coverage and intensity will begin to diminish later this evening as the parent system begins to slide southeast. Northerly outflow winds begin to dominate the region today, with the strongest winds in Lynn Canal, Taku Inlet, and near the Stikine River Inlet. && .PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 0745 AKST Thu Jan 1 2026... SYNOPSIS... Key Messages: - A Winter Storm Warning remains in place for Yakutat into Thursday Evening. - Colder temperatures are in store for the end of the week into the start of next week. - Offshore flow with break in snowfall begins today and lasts through the early weekend. SHORT TERM...The low in the northeast gulf continues to bring snow showers over the Yakutat area as of this morning. These showers are expected to continue throughout the day. With this snow being more showery in nature, brief short breaks may occur. When moderate to heavy snow showers move over the area, visibilities will reduce and can fall below 2 SM. With snow expected to last into Thursday evening, with times of heavy showers, the Winter Storm Warning has been extended until 6 pm this evening. Other gulf coast cities and areas may also experience brief snow showers throughout the day, just not as heavy as the snow near Yakutat. Most other areas of the panhandle will remain fairly dry throughout the day as northerly outflow and offshore flow persists. As outflow and offshore flow becomes more prominent, temperatures will decrease and winds will increase. The strongest winds will be in the typical outflow impact areas: near Skagway and Haines, through Lynn Canal, near Point Couverden, and out of Taku Inlet. These winds mixed with lowering temperatures has allowed for a Cold Weather advisory to be issued for the Klondike Highway near White Pass. Temperatures will continue to slowly drop into the weekend with the coldest temperatures most likely Saturday night into Sunday morning. Lastly, with the drying trend, areas across the southern panhandle have seen fog and freezing fog development overnight into early this morning. This fog has reduced visibilities below 1 SM this morning. Areas of fog will continue to linger through this morning before dissipating. Fog is then likely to once again return tonight as the drying trend continues and skies remain broken to clear. LONG TERM...Cold, stable, and predominantly dry weather pattern is currently expected through Saturday night with higher confidence. The arctic air mass situated over the Yukon, further amplified by a strong upper-level ridge will dictate much of the weather going into the weekend. The northern channels, including Haines and Klondike Highway will experience the coldest conditions, with daytime highs likely remaining in the single digits, and overnight temperatures dipping below zero near White Pass and Haines Customs. The low pressure currently lingering near the NE gulf coast finally looks to dip south on Friday, bringing changes of snow showers for the outer coast mainly. Not expecting these snow showers to move into the inner channels as much, due to dry and cold air filtering in from the north. This pattern begins to shift on Sunday as upper level forcing drives a low pressure system towards the northern coast. The main source of uncertainty for this incoming system is the interaction with the high pressure in the Yukon. The EPS is definitely the most aggressive in breaking down this high pressure, with the GEFS and GEPS keeping the high pressure from breaking down as much in the means. One interesting point is the currently non operational HGEFS show an in between solution in the means, which would still keep most of the panhandle cold enough for snow. While not included in the current analysis, it more points to the unknowns for how this energy will interact with the cold, dry air in Canada. While there is high uncertainty in this part of the forecast, what can be said is moisture is highly likely (>80%) to stream back into the panhandle bringing more precipitation. The main question going forward is where will get the most precipitation, and what weather type (rain, snow, exc) could fall at each location. AVIATION.../Until 12Z Friday/...The northeast gulf coast area, including PAYA, will experience periodic bands of snow showers through this evening, which will generally reduce conditions into the MVFR/IFR category range, possibly temporarily reducing visibilities down to the LIFR category under heavier snow showers. For the remainder of the northern Panhandle, conditions will be in the VFR/MVFR category range with improving conditions as we progress through the TAF period. The southern panhandle will primarily experience VFR flight conditions through the period with patchy/intermittent FG during the early morning hours today. There is no significant LLWS through the period. SFC winds will be strong/gusty for the northeastern Panhandle, including PAGY & PAHN, through the period due to northerly outflow gradient winds. MARINE... Inside Waters(Inner Channels): Up to between around 35 & 40 kt gale force winds are likely for Lynn Canal down to the Point Couverden / Rocky Island area & around the Taku Inlet area into the weekend due to northerly outflow gradient wind conditions & peaking out just shy of gales down Stephens Passage to around Five Finger. For the rest of the N-S oriented Inner Channels, up to around 15 to 20 kt of wind are expected into the weekend. The E-W oriented channels will be around 5 kt lighter on average. Outside Waters(Eastern Gulf of Alaska/Outer Coast): Up to gale force northeasterly outflow winds for the northeastern gulf coastal waters are possible into Friday. The rest of the eastern Gulf remains up to around 15 to 20 kt with a slight diminishing trend into the weekend. Significant wave heights between 5 & 10 ft with a diminishing trend are likely into the weekend. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ317. Cold Weather Advisory until 6 AM AKST Sunday for AKZ318. Strong Wind through late tonight for AKZ318. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-013. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-021-022-031-032-053-643-644-651- 663-664-671-672. && $$ SHORT TERM...EAB LONG TERM...NC AVIATION...AP MARINE...JLC Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau