Expires:No;;109809 FXUS63 KGRB 101111 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 511 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026 Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Accumulating snow is expected today and tonight with the highest amounts in far eastern Wisconsin. Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for far northeast and east-central Wisconsin with a Winter Storm Warning for Door County. - There is a chance of light snow accumulations across northern Wisconsin Sunday night. - Additional snow accumulations are possible late Monday night into Wednesday. - After a brief cool down over the weekend, temperatures will rebound to above normal early next week, then fall again into midweek. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 231 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026 Snowfall Today and Tonight... Models have come into better agreement regarding the phasing of the northern and southern stream systems across the western Great Lakes today. There will be an initial push of moisture and snow from the west and south this morning, which will lift northeast this afternoon, then pivot back south this evening and into the overnight hours. Although much of east-central Wisconsin will see a reprieve from the snow this afternoon, another push of snow will impact central and north-central Wisconsin along with the pivot zone across Door and Marinette counties. Snowfall amounts will generally be 0.5 to 2 inches across much of the area today and tonight. much of east-central and northeast Wisconsin will likely see 2 to 4 inches, with Door County getting around 6 inches, especially in the northern portion of the county in the pivot zone of the snow. Vilas County could also see 2 to 3 inches with some assistance from Lake Superior. NBM probabilities are 50-60% for exceeding 4 inches across east-central and far northeast Wisconsin, with around 50% of exceeding 6 inches for Door County. Given the increased confidence and NBM probabilities, will issue a Winter Weather Advisory for portions of east-central Wisconsin for the initial push of snow this morning into the early afternoon. Given the break in the snow this afternoon and additional amounts this evening of only a half inch or so will not carry the headline into the evening. Farther north will keep the same timing for southern Oconto County for the same reasons in a Winter Weather Advisory but will issue a Winter Weather Advisory for Marinette County through midnight as they are most likely to not see a significant break in the snowfall given the proximity to the region where the snowband will pivot. Despite only a 50% chance of exceeding 6 inches with the NBM, there are enough models that generate 6 inches or more of snow across Door County during this event. Also, since Door County, and especially northern Door County, will be in the pivot zone for the entire event confidence is higher than the NBM in snowfall amounts exceeding 6 inches. Therefore, will issue a Winter Storm Warning for Door County through early Sunday morning as most areas will not see a break in the snowfall. Forecast beyond Saturday Night... A weak clipper system will brush through northern Wisconsin Sunday night, and could bring light accumulations and slippery roads across the area. A second stronger clipper arrives late Monday night and impacts the region through Wednesday. Accumulating snow is expected over much of the forecast area through Tuesday night, with additional accumulations due to lake- effect expected over north-central Wisconsin on Wednesday. Yet another system arrives Thursday night into Friday; however, NWP models show quite a bit of difference in the track of this low through the region. Temperatures cool down a bit this weekend, then warm to above normal again early next week. A decent surge of colder air and gusty north winds follows the midweek clipper system, leading to cooler temperatures for the latter half of next week. && .AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance Issued at 511 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026 MVFR/VFR conditions prevailed across the region early this morning as snow was approaching the airports from the west and south as a clipper system approached the region. The clipper remains on track to bring light snow to the region, starting around or shortly after TAF issuance. Flight conditions will likely drop to IFR as this occurs, but a brief period of LIFR is possible over east-central Wisconsin this morning. The heaviest snow will be over the lakeshore where there is a 50-60% chance of 2 inches or more of accumulations. The snow will diminish at most locations except for northern Door county by midday. Periods of light snow and and flurries will then move back into north-central and northeast Wisconsin from mid to late afternoon and continue through tonight. Northerly low level wind shear is forecast to develop across north-central (RHI/AUW/CWA) TAF sites after 03Z Sunday then across the east-central (ATW/GRB/MTW) TAF sites after 06Z Sunday. Light winds will become northwest today, with gusts to 20 kts in the afternoon and evening. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for WIZ013- 073. Winter Storm Warning until 3 AM CST Sunday for WIZ022. Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for WIZ039- 040-049-050-074. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Kurimski AVIATION.......Kurimski