Expires:No;;675381 FXUS63 KBIS 021805 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1205 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Low to medium chances for light snow and freezing drizzle across northwest and central North Dakota this afternoon through tonight. - Large spread in temperatures from northeast (colder and below normal) to southwest (mild and above normal) through Saturday. - Mainly dry weather and above normal temperatures forecast for much of next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1204 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026 Visibility has greatly improved across western and south central North Dakota, so the Dense Fog Advisory was allowed to expire on time. Overall, the near-term forecast remains on track. Starting to see signs of more substantial snowfall, but still light, on radar imagery in far northeast Montana. UPDATE Issued at 922 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026 Dense fog has become less widespread across western and south central North Dakota, but does still exist in several areas. Will re-evaluate the Dense Fog Advisory around 10 PM CST to see if any counties can be safely removed. A subtle mid level shortwave has induced some light snow/flurries this morning along and west of the Highway 83 corridor. A 20 percent chance of light snow was added to the forecast for this potential, which should slowly drift eastward and eventually merge with the low to medium light snow chances associated with the subsequent shortwave moving down from Saskatchewan later today. The biggest forecast adjustment for this update was to add a mention of patchy light freezing drizzle to the southwest of the forecast light snow with the shortwave moving through later today. RAP/HRRR soundings show favorable depth and temperatures within a near- surface saturated layer and very low probabilities for ice being introduced from aloft. Vertical motion within the saturated layer is upward, but not very strong, and ceilings are forecast to be slightly higher than what we would typically expect with impactful freezing drizzle. The area of concern develops from northwest to south central North Dakota through the afternoon, then slowly expands and drifts eastward this evening through tonight. UPDATE Issued at 542 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026 The forecast for this morning remains on track. See below for more detailed discussion. Will maintain the Dense Fog advisory as is, south and west of the Missouri River, with web cams in this area still showing areas of lower visibility. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 350 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026 Currently, we remain under northwest flow aloft with a surface ridge of high pressure across south central Canada extending southeast through north central and eastern North Dakota. Right entrance region upper level jet dynamics contributing to scattered flurries over the region at times as divergence aloft tickles a persistent baroclinic zone draped across the Dakotas. Patchy to areas of fog early this morning across the western third of the state, with the lowest visibility observations south and west of the Missouri River. This continues to be where high res CAMs put the higher dense fog probabilities and where sfc obs have been lowest the past several hours, so will maintain fog headlines here as is with this product issuance. We opted to cancel the Dense Fog advisory north and east of the Missouri River as models do not favor these areas and vis observations have failed to justify any headlines. Upper level and sfc pattern across the Northern Plains remains quasi-static through Saturday, with northwest flow aloft and a ridge of sfc high pressure draped across the eastern Dakotas. This will maintain cold temperatures northeast and milder temperatures southwest. An embedded wave looks to bring a chance for light snow to central and eastern areas of North Dakota today and tonight, though with little if any snow accumulations with minimal low level forcing. Western US upper level ridge develops east across the Rockies and into the Great Plains Sat night into Sunday, deamplifying as it does and allowing milder air to spread east across the region. Models still depict an embedded S/WV moving through the ridge and across the Dakotas on Sunday, though NBM only has low POPs below 20% so most ensembles are dry with this feature. Can't rule out some moisture though, and could come in the form of mixed precip/freezing rain considering warm temperatures aloft spreading east over sfc temperatures in the 20s across much of my area outside of the southwest. For now will stick with NBM and monitor trends. A quasi-zonal flow is favored for much of next week, with temperatures averaging above normal and only minimal chances for any precipitation. Still some signs of a more active pattern materializing for late next week, though any impacts for our area remain highly uncertain. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1204 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026 Most of western and central North Dakota begins the 18Z TAF cycle with IFR ceilings, and some embedded areas of LIFR. Meanwhile, north central parts of the state maintain a VFR ceiling. The general expectation is for low ceilings to prevail across western and south central North Dakota through the forecast period, though trending closer to MVFR levels. Confidence in KJMS improving to VFR this afternoon has lowered, but will still keep a prevailing period of VFR before higher confidence in low ceilings returning this evening. In north central parts of the state, including KMOT, MVFR ceilings are expected to spread back eastward this evening. Light snow and patchy light freezing drizzle are possible across much of northwest and central North Dakota this afternoon through tonight. The highest probabilities for snow reducing visibility are from KXWA to KMOT and down towards KJMS, and all points to the north. Fog could also return to southwest parts of the state later tonight into Saturday morning. Mostly light and variable winds through the forecast period, except for 10-15 kt southeasterly winds in western North Dakota this afternoon. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Hollan DISCUSSION...NH AVIATION...Hollan