Expires:No;;840082 FXUS61 KBTV 051813 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 113 PM EST Mon Jan 5 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Light snow will continue to develop this afternoon, and it will persist through this evening. Total snow accumulations of one to three inches are expected along with areas of slick travel during the evening commute. Our next stronger system arrives late Tuesday into Wednesday bringing widespread snow and mixed precipitation. A warming trend will occur through the week, with temperatures rising above normal by late week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 112 PM EST Monday...An area of light snow is gradually making its way into the region. It is reaching the ground across most of northern New York while much of it is falling as virga over Vermont. Within the next few hours, the snow will reach the ground everywhere and a light snow will continue through this evening. Rates will be relatively light, generally under an inch per hour. The snow will exit the region late this evening. Overall, between one and three inches of snow is expected in most places. Behind this clipper system, the airmass will be much warmer. Temperatures on Tuesday will rise into the lower 30s for most places. There should be a few breaks of sun in the morning, before high clouds quickly arrive out ahead of the next storm system. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 112 PM EST Monday...A low pressure system tracks up St. Lawrence Valley Tuesday night into Wednesday and brings a round of widespread precipitation. Trends have been to a colder solution, with a secondary low developing over southern New England quicker and helping keep the cold air around. While the antecedent airmass will be much warmer than it has been, it will be just cold enough for the precipitation to start as snow in most places. The exception looks to be in part of the western Adirondacks where warm air advection should be able to raise temperatures aloft above freezing. Therefore, sleet/freezing rain looks to develop there on the onset. With dynamical cooling and weakening warm air advection due to the secondary low developing, the precipitation there looks to change to snow within a few hours. Precipitation may also start as sleet and or freezing rain for southern Vermont, but it looks to transition to snow there as well for a period of time. Overall, another one to three inches of snow is expected for most areas. Ice accumulations should generally stay around and below 0.05 inches. The overall amount of precipitation is limited with this system, with only a couple tenths of an inch of liquid equivalent at most, so regardless of the precipitation types, the impacts will be on the minor side. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 112 PM EST Monday...Steady warming is expected on Thursday, but upper level ridging will take some more time to shift east. So a partly cloudy day is expected with steady south winds. Deep layer ridging moves off shore, and strong warm advection will get underway. Temperatures may briefly cool after sunset, but a non- diurnal curve appears and conditions should be above freezing about sunrise Friday morning. A plume of deep moisture with PWATs between 0.75-1.00" will move north during the day. The surface low is not overly deep, though, and 850mb flow will increase to 50-55 knots. So there will likely be a lot of terrain influence, and the moisture plume will quickly shift east. The question in the long range will be the degree of separation between this system and the one behind it. If there's a larger degree of separation, then temperatures may be able to cool off enough that we don't experience a long window of consecutive hours above freezing. If there's little, then we remain locked into southwest flow and fail to fall below freezing on Saturday. Either way, there could be impacts, as precipitation quickly overspreads with a stronger system and southerly flow that could bring a mix, and the other scenario would result in a broader thaw and additional rain. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 18Z Tuesday...Snow is overspreading the region and will remain through about 00z before gradually tapering off. Prevailing visibility of 1/2SM-2SM is likely across all terminals over the next 6-9 hours with a light south to southwest wind. Snow will be airy. As snow begins, ceilings will trend towards 1500-3000 ft agl. Even after the snow has departed after 00z, MVFR ceilings will likely linger with steady south to southwest winds. Partly clearing skies are expected beyond 12z Tuesday, but it will be short-lived as more precipitation will arrive after 18z Tuesday. Outlook... Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Definite SN, Definite FZRA. Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SN, Chance SHSN. Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. Chance RA, Chance SN. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely RA. Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely RA. Saturday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely RA. && .EQUIPMENT... NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt. Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG 546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz. The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service. This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn't an estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational forecast. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Myskowski NEAR TERM...Myskowski SHORT TERM...Myskowski LONG TERM...Haynes AVIATION...Haynes EQUIPMENT...Team BTV