Expires:No;;433456 FXUS63 KJKL 291115 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 615 AM EST Mon Dec 29 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Wind Advisory remains in effect over all of eastern Kentucky into this afternoon. Strong winds may blow around loose objects, bring down tree limbs, and cause a few power outages. - A few light snow showers or flurries are possible today and tonight as much colder air settles in. - Some light snow accumulations are possible Wednesday night into Thursday with a weak and progressive system brushing the area from the north and northeast. - Though there is considerable uncertainty at this time, especially with regards to temperatures, we are monitoring a southern stream system which has some potential to bring a cold rain and perhaps some wintry precipitation to parts of the area Friday night into early Saturday. - Winter-like temperatures will persist through the end of 2025 and into the beginning of 2026. && .UPDATE... Issued at 532 AM EST MON DEC 29 2025 Made minor updates to PoPs through this evening, mainly to reflect current radar trends. Also updated hourly temperatures, though these were already largely on track based on the most recent observations. Snow shower wording for today into this evening was trimmed a bit more in favor of just flurries in the forecast. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 344 AM EST MON DEC 29 2025 A deep stacked low over the central Great Lakes region moves northeast to central and southern Quebec Tuesday afternoon. Closer to home, the upper trough axis extending from this low crosses eastern Kentucky by midday, with a strong southwesterly jet being replaced by northwesterly flow that will persist through Tuesday. Enough moisture will exist for a few snow showers and/or flurries through this evening, though no significant impacts are expected even with temperatures dropping through the 30s and 20s today into tonight. Surface winds will continue to remain gusty in the strong cold advection regime and keep blustery conditions across the forecast area through midday before gradually diminishing through tonight and Tuesday, though never totally subsiding until Tuesday evening. Drier air works into the region Tuesday with clearing skies, but even with mostly sunny skies in the afternoon highs will only reach the upper 20s to mid 30s. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 444 AM EST Mon Dec 29 2025 Models remain in generally good agreement that broad troughing will remain in place over much of Eastern CONUS through the end of 2025. A clipper-type disturbance is poised to navigate through the resultant northwesterly flow aloft to start 2026, but forecast uncertainty increases significantly in the wake of this system. Models disagree on how much and how fast that troughing will retrograde before a southern-stream system impacts the area next weekend. Because of this, there remains a great deal of ambiguity in the exact temperature and precipitation type forecasts late in the forecast period. When the period opens on Tuesday night, it will be quite chilly here in Eastern Kentucky. The proximity of a surface high pressure system and continued cold/dry air advection aloft should allow for some ridge-valley temperature splits to emerge after dark. Sheltered and shaded valleys are positioned to drop off into the teens for more more night, with the "warmer" ridgetops remaining in the 20s. Temperatures should moderate some on New Year's Eve as surface flow briefly backs towards the southwest ahead of a quick-moving clipper's arrival. This return flow does not look particularly vigorous, but it should pair with some solar heating to yield afternoon highs in the lower half of the 40s. Temps cool back off to near or below freezing values after dark, when the precipitation chances from this clipper begin to spread across the forecast area. The best upper level support for this system will remain displaced to the NE, so >= 25% PoPs are limited to locales along/northeast of KY Highway 15. Nocturnal temperature profiles in this corridor do look sufficiently cold enough to support snow as a p-type, but a lack of deep moisture and the system's fast-paced nature should keep impacts at a minimum. Nevertheless, it looks like the northeastern half of the CWA could begin 2026 with a dusting of snow. The clipper system's trailing cold front is forecast to knock temperatures on New Year's Day a few degrees cooler than they were on New Year's Eve. Expect one more day of breezy surface winds out of the west and cool air advection throughout the column. Beyond then, the dominant troughing begins to ease up, resulting in midlevel height rises and thermal moderation. However, the magnitude of this moderation is uncertain. There is still 8 to 10 degrees of spread between the 25th and 75th temperature percentiles of LREF Grand Ensemble data in the latter stages of the forecast period. Because the exact thermometer readings in this time frame will play a significant role in determining what precipitation type, if any at all, will fall from a southern-stream system on Saturday, we will need to keep a close eye on trends in the model guidance related to this feature over the coming days. Relative to this time yesterday, models have collectively trended the trajectory of the parent cyclone further to the southeast. If this came to fruition, the greatest precipitation chances would be be relegated further to the south in the Tennessee Valley. For now though, chance PoPs remain in the forecast for much of the Commonwealth. The greatest PoPs overlap with the warmest surface temperatures in Southern Kentucky in this forecast package, but the event remains shrouded in uncertainty. A wintery mix cannot be ruled out quite yet, and interests with weekend plans are encouraged to stay tuned to future forecast updates. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) ISSUED AT 615 AM EST MON DEC 29 2025 Rain with widespread MVFR conditions will exit east over the next hour, with a mix of MVFR to low-VFR cigs continuing. Low clouds may scatter at times, especially this afternoon at KSME and KLOZ. Light snow showers or flurries are possible from late morning onward with associated visibility reductions, but confidence is too low to include in the TAFs at this time. A relative lull in the winds currently will give way to an increase in winds and gusts later this morning and lasting into the afternoon, especially at KSYM, with gusts of 25 to 35 kts commonplace. Winds will diminish especially after 22z Tuesday but still remain in the range of 8 to 12 kts sustained before diminishing further after 06z. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for KYZ044-050>052- 060-104-106. Wind Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for KYZ058-059-068- 069-079-080-083>088-107>120. && $$ UPDATE...CMC SHORT TERM...CMC LONG TERM...MARCUS AVIATION...CMC