Expires:No;;923965 FXUS65 KBOU 070543 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1043 PM MST Tue Jan 6 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Less wind and still unseasonably mild Wednesday. - Trends continue to show increasing chances of measurable snow for most of the area (minus the northeast plains) Thursday - Friday. Probability now up to 70-80% for at least an inch or two of snow for most of the I-25 Corridor south of Loveland. Several inches of snow likely (>60% chance) over the mountains, foothills, and Palmer Divide. - Much colder by late Thursday and Friday. - Moderating temperatures this weekend, with dry weather prevailing through early next week. && .DISCUSSION /Through Tuesday/... Issued at 235 PM MST Tue Jan 6 2026 Radar indicates the mountain wave that brought significant winds to areas in and adjacent to the foothills last night and this morning is retreating back up the Front Range. Meanwhile, gusty winds have spread across a good chunk of the plains due to daytime heating and mixing. Those will be decreasing with sunset or shortly before, bringing an end to our fire weather threat. On Wednesday, we'll be under the influence of flat ridging aloft. This will mean weaker gradients and lighter winds for a welcome change. Temperatures should be able to reach levels similar to today, with upper 50s/near 60F degree readings across the plains and I-25 once more. All eyes are looking to Thursday, as the next storm system arrives ushering in colder temperatures and a rare but meaningful chance of accumulating snow. Cluster analysis showed about two thirds of the total runs (mainly EPS members) showing a deeper mid level trough moving toward the Four Corners by Thursday night, while about a third were still more progressive and weaker. With this type of pattern evolving we would favor the deeper solution. That would give us a little better upslope component and thus a higher probability of more meaningful precipitation. That said, that track also keeps the best lift and moisture to our south, and cross sections show some dry intrusions from the north. As a result, the highest probabilities for several inches of snow would stay over the mountains, foothills, and Palmer Divide. Denver would essentially be in the middle, with most likely a 1-4" forecast across metro - favoring the south/west sides. It should be noted there are a couple GEFS outliers with more significant totals in excess of 6" for Denver, but the probability of that is very small, as in less than 10%. In fact, only 4 of the 51 EPS members produced anything more than 4" for Denver. At least almost all members have light measurable snow. Chances of snow greater than an inch gradually decrease to the northeast of Denver across the plains, largely because of weaker lift and potential for dry air intrusion. There could be a little rain/snow mix to start Thursday, but with cold advection that will change over to all snow with travel impacts likely by evening. Depending on snow rates, this could impact the Thursday evening commute in Denver and the foothills/mountains. Snow gradually decreases north to south Thursday night into early Friday morning as the storm system pulls into Kansas, but it looks like Friday morning's commute would still be impacted due to the colder temperatures and snow covered roads. Highs on Friday will likely only recover to near the freezing mark, but with the increase in solar insolation travel conditions would be much improved for the late morning and afternoon. Saturday will feature northwest flow and potential for a weak trailing disturbance. Temperatures will only moderate to near seasonal normals, but that'll still feel cold compared to our recent warmth. Further moderation to above normal temperatures is expected by Sunday into early next week. However, despite ridging aloft and mainly dry conditions, we'll still be prone to backdoor cold fronts across the plains and thus brief cooldowns. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday/... Issued at 1038 PM MST Tue Jan 6 2026 VFR through Wednesday, with chances for MFVR/IFR conditions gradually increasing Wednesday night into Thursday. It looks as if we're on our last puff or two of westerly winds this evening, and drainage winds should prevail most of the overnight hours. Wednesday should feature a more typical diurnal wind pattern, with light easterly winds developing during the afternoon hours. Winds are little less certain Wednesday evening into Wednesday night, as a cold front approaches the terminals. At this point it looks like any wind shift would hold off until after 06z Thursday and may be closer to 12z Thursday. Guidance generally starts dropping ceilings overnight Wednesday night, with lower ceilings likely Thursday morning along with increasing chances for snow. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...20 AVIATION...Hiris