Expires:No;;110945 FXUS63 KDMX 101150 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 550 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026 ...Updated for the 12z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Increasing potential for bursts of quickly falling snow and breezy winds leading to periods of reduced visibilities late this morning through the afternoon. Minimal snow accumulations however are expected. - Seasonal temperatures this weekend, then warming back into the 40s Monday and in the 50s for much of the state by Tuesday. Conditions remain generally dry during this time, with only low (10-20%) chances for precipitation by midweek. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 357 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026 Areas of isolated snow showers have been occurring early this morning per surface observations and roadcams, which has been most notable in the last few hours at Fort Dodge and Mason City as surfaces have become partially to fully covered with a light dusting of snow. The feature responsible for this is a boundary that has extended down into Iowa from the area of relatively weak surface low pressure centered just north of Minnesota this morning. However, even brighter bands of returns from radar have also been occurring further south and east across Iowa this morning in relation to the southern shortwave that will continue to merge with the aforementioned system to the north. Overall, dry air has been able to keep many areas without any precipitation, though a handful of more isolated areas of saturation have led to snow reaching the surface and causing slight visibility reductions. The expectation is that these systems will merge, with light snow showers generally remaining isolated over the next few hours east of I-35 before the boundary exits central Iowa by sunrise. This will be followed by a brief push of dry air into the region at least through mid-morning, leading so a period of quiet weather and a very brief period of sunshine. The deepening surface low pressure will descend southeast across the Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley by late morning and through the rest of the day, with a tightening pressure gradient along with increasing cold air advection bringing cooler air into Iowa by the evening. Winds will increase through the afternoon to evening, with gusts out of the northwest up to 25-30 mph and highest winds in northwest Iowa up to 35 mph. As this system passes through, an associated cold front is expected to arrive into northern Iowa by mid-late morning, then dropping south and east through the afternoon to early evening. With this boundary comes another shot of moisture and forcing for lift that is expected to generate additional snow showers into Iowa. A closer look at soundings indicates the presence of favorable instability present along the boundary as it drops through, along with some notable lift in the saturated DGZ during this time frame, leading to an increasing potential for snow bursts to occur. Any areas of snow bursts would lead to brief periods of visibilities dropping rapidly due to efficient quick snowfall, along with this snow blowing around given the expected breezy conditions. Accumulations overall should remain minimal around a dusting or so with any snowfall. Those planning to be out and about today should keep a close eye on conditions, and plan accordingly for potential periods of hazardous travel conditions where these showers end up passing through. By the evening, conditions dry out across the state, with winds slowly decreasing into Sunday morning and chilly temperatures as overnight lows fall into the teens to low 20s across the state, warmest southeast. A building mid-level thermal ridge across the western CONUS into the Central Plains will allow for dry weather through the start of the work week, with temperatures gradually warming into the 40s and even into the 50s by Tuesday for much of Iowa. There remains the signal of a few shortwaves riding the larger scale flow, with the first one indicated in long range guidance dropping across the Upper Midwest Tuesday. The latest guidance per GFS has trended this wave further north and east, keeping Iowa dry, while the Euro drops it further south which clips north and east Iowa with at least some minimal potential (<10%) for rain. While normal to see some differences more than a few days out, impacts in terms of precipitation look very low at this time. Of more certainty however would be the increase in northwesterly flow Tuesday, which will result in breezy conditions Tuesday as gusts are expected to reach over 20-25 mph in Iowa. By Wednesday, a slightly deeper wave dropping southeast across the Upper Midwest looks to bring additional low chances (<20%) for precipitation, but again will depend on how the earlier system ends up tracking, so something to keep a casual eye on. Trends indicate cooler air into Wednesday following the breezy conditions Tuesday, with only slightly lower temperatures expected in the 30s. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 550 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026 Light snow showers will exit the area within the next hour or so, with conditions improving for all sites through mid-morning. Then, mid to low level clouds gradually move back into Iowa, with additional chances for show showers in northern Iowa by late morning, tracking southeast through the afternoon. For this forecast issuance, confidence is high enough to specifically include -SN at the majority of terminals, outside of KDSM due to uncertainty in track of these snow showers, but will be monitoring closely and update as needed. Winds turn gusty out of the northwest into the afternoon to evening, paired with quickly falling snow that would lead to visibility reductions at times. MVFR conditions generally prevail this afternoon into Sunday as low clouds pivot across the northeast, impacting KMCW and KALO, with VFR conditions returning for the remaining terminals this evening. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Bury AVIATION...Bury