Expires:No;;936175 FXUS65 KFGZ 071019 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 319 AM MST Wed Jan 7 2026 .SYNOPSIS...A series of winter storms will impact portions of northern Arizona today and Thursday. Rain and snow showers develop later this afternoon, especially across central and eastern Arizona. More widespread rain and snow above 5000-5500 feet is expected to develop on Thursday with a cold front. Colder and dry conditions set in for Friday, with gradual warming expected over the weekend and into next week. && .DISCUSSION...Today and Tonight...A closed-low off the southern California Coast ejects off the Pacific later today. Clouds will be on the increase through the day as moisture increases ahead of the low. As vertical motion increases late this afternoon and evening, an area of precipitation is expected to develop over the Lower Deserts and gradually progress north and east. Given the track of the low, the best chances for precipitation will be mainly across the eastern Mogollon Rim to the White Mountains. With some warmer air still in place aloft, snow levels look to be around 7000 feet initially, but then quickly fall back to near 6000 feet as the low draws closer. Thus, most areas will likely see rain (or a rain/snow mix) this afternoon, before transitioning over to all snow across the higher terrain in the evening and overnight. Precipitation amounts through early Thursday morning look to largely be around 0.20-0.50 inches from about a Prescott-Flagstaff-Chinle line and east, with upwards of 0.70-0.90 possible in some of the upslope areas along the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. Likewise, the greatest snowfall amounts through tonight will mainly be concentrated across eastern Arizona. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the White Mountains, Chuska Mountains, and Black Mesa starting later today. In these areas, 2 to 4 inches are expected with upwards of 8 to 12 inches across the peaks of the White Mountains. Elsewhere, generally around a inch or so is expected above 6000-6500 feet. Thursday...A secondary open wave then drops southward into Arizona from the north on Thursday. Increased dynamics and residual moisture look to provide a better shot for precipitation across a larger portion of northern Arizona. Much colder air is also advected into the region with the storm, dropping snow levels down to near 4500- 5500 feet by late Thursday afternoon. While showers look to develop during the late morning and early afternoon, the bulk of (and most intense) looks to occur in a 2-3 hour period of moderate to heavy precipitation along a cold front. This frontogentically-forced band looks to develop across western Arizona by the early afternoon and quickly move from west to east across northern Arizona. 00Z HREF guidance has around a 40-50% chance for 1"/hr snowfall rates during this time frame across the High Country. Thus, a period of very hazardous driving conditions are expected during the afternoon hours, with poor visibility and roads becoming quickly snow covered. Gusty winds to around 30-40 mph are also expected with the front. Precipitation amounts for the second wave look to be around 0.20- 0.50 inches for much of the higher terrain, with a few hundredths to around a tenth of an inch in the lower elevations. Some locally higher amounts of 0.60-0.90 will again be possible in the usual upslope areas, namely the Kaibab Plateau, Mogollon Rim, White Mountains, and the Chuska Mountains. Snowfall amounts for most will be higher with the second storm, with 2 to 5 inches forecast above 6000-6500 feet, and the potential for light accumulations down to around 5000-5500 feet. Higher amounts of 8 to 14 inches will be possible above 7500-8000 feet. The Winter Weather Advisory continue through Thursday evening for the previously mentioned areas, but is expanded to include the Kaibab Plateau, Mogollon Rim, and Grand Canyon areas on Thursday. Friday through Tuesday...High pressure begins to build back into Arizona by the end of the week. While colder temperatures will remain on Friday, temperatures begin to gradually rise into the start of next week. Dry conditions also look to prevail through the extended forecast period. && .AVIATION...Wednesday 07/12Z through Thursday 08/12Z...Look for VFR conditions under scattered/broken upper-level clouds through 18Z. After 18Z, -SHRA/SHSN developing with MVFR conditions over the mountain areas along and south of a KGCN-KFLG-KSOW line. This evening and overnight, deteriorating conditions with widespread SHRA/SHSN along with widespread MVFR/IFR conditions and localized LIFR. Light and variable winds through 17Z then southwest winds at 5-15 kts. Southwest winds increasing to 10-20 kts after 06Z. OUTLOOK...Thursday 08/12Z through Saturday 10/12Z...Widespread SHRA/SHSN, ending from west to east late Thursday night through Friday morning. The heaviest precipitation is forecast 12Z Thursday to 06Z Friday. Snow level near 6000 feet early Thursday morning lowering to near 4000 feet by Thursday evening. Widespread MVFR with areas of IFR/LIFR (especially the mountains) is forecast. Improving conditions by 12Z Friday with VFR conditions returning. Gusty west-southwest winds at 15-30 kts are expected on Thursday, transitioning to north-northwest by Thursday evening. Winds remain elevated on Friday but from the north-northeast. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Thursday...Two storm systems will impact the region, the first today and tonight and the second much colder system Thursday into Thursday night. Temperatures remain near average today with southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Precipitation begins this afternoon with snow above 7000 feet and rain elsewhere. Temperatures plunge tonight and Thursday with snow down to 5000 feet. Plan on daytime highs 10 to 15 degrees below average on Thursday with southwest through northwest winds 15 to 25 mph gusting 30-40 mph. Friday through Sunday...Very cold on Friday with highs 15 to 20 degrees below average. Winds will shift to the north-northeast 15 to 25 mph throughout the day with dry conditions. Temperatures begin to warm up gradually for the weekend as northeast winds prevail at 10 to 20 mph each day and night. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM MST Thursday for AZZ004-006-007-015-016. Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM MST Thursday for AZZ011-039. Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM MST Thursday for AZZ017. && $$ PUBLIC...Humphreys AVIATION...JJ FIRE WEATHER...JJ For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff