Expires:No;;282016 FXUS64 KFWD 262332 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 532 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Well above-average (potentially record-breaking) temperatures are forecast through Sunday. - A strong cold front will bring widely scattered showers with a 10% chance of storms Sunday afternoon/evening. Strong, gusty north winds behind the front may blow around loose objects. - Much colder and below average temperatures are expected early next week, with temperatures warming back up in the middle to late parts of the week. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Saturday Night) Issued at 1216 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025 The next couple days will be exceptionally warm for late December. High temperatures will be about 30 degrees above normal for those along the Red River, and 20+ degrees above normal for everyone else. It's even worse for overnight lows since most of the area will be near or above the 30 degrees above normal mark. A few daily records are also in jeopardy the next few days (see table at bottom of this section for additional info). The first factor driving our temperatures up is a mid and upper-level ridge still planted over the Southern Plains combined with a high pressure system to our east keeping prevailing southerly flow in-place. These two factors usually promote above-normal temperatures in the winter, but today's warmth will be compounded by a west to northwesterly downslope flow. Compressional warming as a result of the downslope flow will drive temperatures into the mid 80s for most of the area this afternoon. Winds will become more southerly tonight as the high pressure center to our east weakens and a low pressure system to our north deepens and start to draw better moisture north. The moisture increase will result in the development of very low stratus and some patchy fog (although fog potential is lower due to strong winds at the top of the cloud layer, which disrupts fog formation and favors very low stratus) for areas south of I-20, but particularly for those south of highway 84. Morning clouds should give way to partly sunny skies under passing cirrus tomorrow. More of a pure south wind will lessen the compressional warming, plus the addition of slightly higher dew points and cloud cover should result in tomorrow's highs being a touch lower than today for most of the area. Saturday night will be another mild night with lows struggling to fall below 65 for most. Widespread stratus is forecast to engulf the area in the early-morning hours Sunday. The good news is that Sunday morning should be the last morning (for a while, at least) where overnight lows are in the mid 60s since a strong cold front should arrive late in the day Sunday. If it were not for that cold front arriving before midnight, daily high minimum temperature records would have been likely to fall. - Dec 26 Daily Record Temperatures - -DFW Record High: 83 (set in 2008) Forecast High: 85 WACO Record High: 84 (set in 2016) Forecast High: 84 - Dec 27 Daily Record Temperatures - DFW Record High: 82 (set in 2005) Forecast High: 82 Record High Minimum: 62 (set in 2021) Forecast Low: 63 WACO Record High: 85 (set in 2005) Forecast High: 79 Record High Minimum: 66 (set in 1971) Forecast Low: 64 - Dec 28 Daily Record Temperatures DFW Record High: 83 (set in 2016) Forecast High: 82 WACO Record High: 85 (set in 2021) Forecast High: 80 We did not include record high minimum data for Dec 28 since a strong cold front should blow through before midnight and not jeopardize those records. However, if the front delays beyond midnight, record high minimum temperatures will be at jeopardy for DFW and Waco on the 28th as well. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 1216 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025 Sunday will start mild and somewhat humid, particularly for our Central and East Texas counties. While we have not included mentionable precip in the forecast Sunday morning, isentropic ascent within a dense stratus deck may result in some drizzle Sunday morning. All eyes will be on the cold front barreling through the Central CONUS on Sunday. It is slated to arrive to our northwestern counties late in the afternoon/early evening and move through all of North and Central Texas by about midnight. This front should be one of those you instantly feel, with falling temperatures and lower dew points behind the leading edge of the front. As typical with these kind of fronts, there will be strong post-frontal winds and post-frontal stratus. Our current forecast calls for post- frontal winds right around our Wind Advisory criteria shortly after FROPA and through Monday morning. As it stands right now, there is a roughly 40% chance of needing an advisory. Either way, it will be a good idea to secure any loose objects you have lying around or any Christmas blowups you still have up. Regarding precip...we expect isolated to at least widely scattered showers to develop along/ahead of the front Sunday afternoon and evening. There is a low (10%) chance of a few isolated storms, mainly across the eastern parts of our area. Any precip that develops should be short-lived, with average rain amounts totaling <0.05" for most. Temperature whiplash is probably a good term for what we expect with this front. Given the prolonged stretch of warm temperatures lately, Monday morning starting with lows in the low to mid 30s with wind chill values in the teens for North Texas and 20s for Central Texas will be a shock to the system. We should stay in the 40s Monday afternoon with breezy north winds continuing into the evening. The high pressure system will move into North and Central Texas Monday night, allowing temps to fall below freezing for all of our forecast area Tuesday morning. Lingering cloud cover and elevated winds off the surface will inhibit radiational cooling, but it will still be a cold night. More seasonal temperatures and pleasant weather is forecast for the middle parts of next week as the high pressure system moves east and a mid-level (transient) ridge moves in. There are signs of a backdoor cold front moving in late in the week that stalls out over West Texas next weekend. A more active weather pattern is then looking more likely in the 7-14 day range as zonal flow takes hold of the southern CONUS. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 513 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025 VFR will prevail through the late evening hours with winds becoming more southerly over the last hour. A few high clouds will continue to stream in across the region, but otherwise the weather will be quiet. Scattered low clouds and possibly some fog are expected to develop across Central TX overnight. These low clouds will likely impact Waco during the early morning hours, but southwest flow above the surface is likely to keep most of this to the east of the D10 airspace. We'll continue to monitor this potential through the night. South winds around 15 kt and VFR will prevail on Saturday. Dunn && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 62 82 64 82 / 0 0 0 10 Waco 64 79 64 80 / 0 0 0 10 Paris 60 79 63 77 / 0 0 0 20 Denton 57 83 62 82 / 0 0 0 10 McKinney 59 82 64 80 / 0 0 0 10 Dallas 62 82 64 82 / 0 0 0 10 Terrell 63 80 64 80 / 0 0 0 10 Corsicana 67 82 66 82 / 0 0 0 10 Temple 62 79 64 81 / 0 0 0 10 Mineral Wells 56 87 61 85 / 0 0 0 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Bonnette LONG TERM....Bonnette AVIATION...Dunn