Expires:No;;619321
FXUS62 KKEY 011750
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1250 PM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Rain chances near nil expected through the end of the week.
 
-Coldest air of the season so far! Tonight's lows are expected to
 be in the lower 50s in the Upper Keys and mid to upper 50s for 
 the Middle and Lower Keys.

-A slow moderating trend is expected to begin on Friday with
 temperatures rebounding into the 70s during the day with 
 overnight lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 PM EST Thu Jan 1 2026
VFR conditions prevail at EYW and MTH. CIGs cleared at EYW, but 
occasional CIGs between FL040 and FL050 are possible. Breezes 
shifted northeast before noon, and will slacken a bit tonight. An 
overnight wind surge may nudge winds up and cause slight veering 
to the northeast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 430 AM EST Thu Jan 1 2026
There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect
across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, gentle to 
moderate northwest to north breezes will prevail this afternoon 
before slackening rapidly heading into the afternoon hours. High 
pressure currently over the western Gulf moves over Florida and 
the Florida Keys through the end of the week. This will promote a 
period of light and variable breezes. A weak front is expected to 
pass through the Key sometime Sunday with a return of northerly 
breezes.


&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in 1984, the daily record low temperature of 49F was 
recorded at Marathon. Temperature records for Marathon date back 
to 1950.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 AM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

High pressure over the western Gulf to the south of Louisiana 
this morning will continue to slowly move to the east to southeast
through Saturday. As it does so, it will slowly weaken. Due to 
the slow movement of the high, the northwest to north flow will 
linger into tonight before breezes start to shift to the 
northeast. Gentle to moderate breezes are expected to continue 
through around 9-11 am this morning due to the nocturnal land 
breeze surge. However, this will mainly be felt across the 
nearshore and offshore waters of the Middle and Upper Keys. As we 
approach the weekend, the high will move directly overhead which 
will result in a period of light to variable breezes. After one 
more cool day, temperatures will start to slowly rebound beginning
Friday with highs getting back towards 70 degrees, though, 
overnight lows will still remain quite cool. This will especially 
be the case in the Upper Keys where overnight lows are still 
anticipated to fall into the 50s through Friday night. Since the 
winds diminish after this morning, this will lead to the potential
for radiational cooling overnight, especially across the larger 
islands. Therefore, since we have a cool and dry air mass in 
place, it will still be able to cool quite easily overnight. 
Also, the dew points won't start to increase until the weekend. 
Temperatures rise back to near normal over the weekend which is 
highs in the mid 70s and overnight lows in the lower to mid 60s. 
Dry air will remain entrenched across the Keys through the period 
leading to nil rain chances through Saturday. 

Confidence is starting to increase for a subtle front to press
through the Keys sometime Saturday night or Sunday. This front may
more result in just a wind shift rather than a dip in the dew
points. In addition, moisture will try and pool ahead of the
front. Therefore, slight chance of showers (10%) return to the
forecast for Saturday night and Sunday. 

High pressure will dominate the eastern United States behind the
front as it moves out into the Atlantic by mid week. This will
result in mainly a northeast to east flow through the extended.
Dry air will remain across the Keys behind the front leading to
nil rain chances.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  68  61  69  62 /   0   0   0   0 
Marathon  65  59  68  61 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...AJP
Aviation/Nowcasts....AJP
Data Acquisition.....AJP

Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
www.facebook.com/nwskeywest
www.twitter.com/nwskeywest