Expires:No;;894763 FXUS63 KMQT 061713 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 1213 PM EST Tue Jan 6 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A weak cold front pushes across the U.P from west to east this afternoon and evening. A brief period (less than one hour) of freezing rain and snow will accompany the front. The highest chance (30%) for freezing rain will be over the west and south. Less than a half inch of snowfall is expected. - Confidence is increasing that two systems could impact the Upper Great Lakes early Friday and Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. There are questions about when and how these systems will impact the region, so interested parties should keep an eye on future forecasts. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 203 AM EST Tue Jan 6 2026 Early this morning upper air analysis and GOES water vapor imagery showed largely a zonal flow over the northern tier of the United Sates with multiple weak shortwave in the flow upstream from the U.P. Low level moisture along with sufficient cooling overnight into the teens and 20s had allowed for fog to develop over the southern half of the U.P. Fog was most widespread near Lake Michigan which was providing additional moisture with a light southerly flow. Escanaba was reporting dense fog this hour but overall dense fog seemed to be isolated with most observations showing at least a mile visibility. No precipitation was reported overnight but it remained cloudy with a combination of low clouds and mid to high level cloudiness. Today through tonight, a sfc low will track from northern IL to lower MI by this evening and then into Ontario tonight. Precipitation largely stays south of the U.P and have removed any PoPs associated with this wave. The main concern is for this afternoon and evening as a weak cold front pushes through the U.P. CAMs/HREF supports a narrow band of precipitation along the front with support from a steeper mid-level lapse rates and passing weak shortwave. P-types look to be a mix and there remains some uncertainty as to what p-types to expect. Overall sounding have a warm nose initially in the west but that quickly erodes due to evaporative cooling. Over the far south sounding are a bit more isothermal, right along the 0C isotherm. Expecting the best chance for any freezing rain will be at onset in the west this afternoon and over the far south (Menominee) this evening though sfc temps will be marginally cold, right near freezing. Precipitation will generally be light and last no more than an hour at any given location. HREF probs for .05" QPF are highest from Iron Mountain to Escanaba and south, 30-50% chance. Short duration and uncertainty does not warrant headlines but short term messaging may be needed this afternoon as any freezing rain could be impactful even if only a light glaze. Expect up to a quick half inch of snowfall over the north central and east as the band moves though. Temperatures will be in the low 30s this afternoon under widespread cloud cover and drop back into the low to mid 20s tonight. High pressure follows Wednesday and Thursday with continued zonal to psuedo-zonal flow aloft. This will allow the region to remain mostly dry both days while attention turns to a shortwave digging eastward through the Desert Southwest and split flow developing over the Rockies with at least 2 shortwaves to watch for the weekend. Guidance is in good agreement that the first shortwave and associated surface low will lift northeast from the south-central Plains into the Great Lakes region Thursday night through Friday morning. While GEFS, EPS, and GEPS membership all still need to narrow in on the exact surface low placement, the general progression of their means and deterministic reflections keep the system southeast of the region, potentially grazing the southern and eastern portions of the forecast area or as close as to provide precip across the east half. Ptype is questionable and could include rain and freezing rain, before transitioning to snow as the system pulls away. Afterwards, the 2 aforementioned shortwaves come into play. 6z and 0z guidance suggested the two waves would phase over the Upper Great Lakes, resulting in a deepening low capable of strong winds and heavy snow. Some of the 12z guidance though, is suggesting the two features could remain detached while in the vicinity to impact the forecast area; this would support a weaker surface low from the northwest with lake effect snow to round out the weekend. As we get closer to the event, guidance should provide more clarity on the structure and potential impacts on the event. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1212 PM EST Tue Jan 6 2026 Lots of low level moisture hangs around the rest of today through tonight as a weak cold front pushes through the area later this afternoon through this evening. Thus, expect conditions to remain LIFR/VLIFR across CMX and SAW this afternoon into tonight. However, generally expect IFR conditions at IWD this afternoon, even during the precipitation, before deteriorating into LIFR/VLIFR tonight. While -FZRA is the most likely precipitation type at IWD this afternoon, chances for -SHSN are increasing at CMX and SAW this evening as the latest HRRR runs show a much more moist (and cooler) atmospheric profile. Expect FG/FZFG and pretty calm winds tonight across the terminals as weak high pressure ridging moves through the Upper Great Lakes. We could see things improving Wednesday morning as we get onto the back-end of the weak high pressure ridge and skies begin to clear out. && .MARINE... Issued at 152 PM EST Mon Jan 5 2026 Overall, light winds below 20kts will span Lake Superior through at least Friday afternoon. This is due to weak passing systems without much airmass/pressure turnover, which is preventing deepening low pressures from occuring. This changes Thursday night/Friday morning as a low pressure lifts quickly northeast through the Plains and lower Michigan. This transition may allow a strong low pressure to develop in the Great Lakes by Saturday. Guidance really isn't suggesting much of a trend that lends to higher confidence in what this system will do. In fact, 12z guidance actually introduces more uncertainty by suggesting the two contributing shortwaves may not phase together over the region, or if they do, they wait until over Ontario. This will impact whether or not gales/storms and heavy freezing spray will occur. While current forecast reflects low end gales, the latest NBM suggests this probability is near 35%. For now, recommendation is to continue monitoring future forecasts. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JTP/NL AVIATION...TAP MARINE...JTP