Expires:No;;371312 FXUS64 KMOB 281150 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 550 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 550 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025 - Dense fog will reduce visibilities this morning and possibly tonight across the coastal areas. - Well above average temperatures are expected to continue today. A strong cold front brings an end to this warmth on Monday, with a Cold Weather Advisory potentially being needed for Monday and Tuesday nights. - Strong winds over the marine area will create hazardous conditions for small craft Monday into Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1124 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025 Now through Saturday... Currently, a blend of dense fog and stratus has developed over the southern half of the forecast area and is moving north. Coverage of each is hard to pin down, with varying winds just above the boundary layer the issue. Sunday on, an upper level trough stretching north over the eastern Conus shifts east, then south as an upper level shortwave trough moves around the base of an closed upper low over the Great Lakes. A strong cold front moves south over the Southeast Sunday night into Monday in response. Ahead of the frontal passage, south to southwesterly low level flow in the upper 60s to low 70s off the Gulf over coastal waters in the upper 50s to low 60s will allow for sea fog and stratus development each night, moving inland as the night progresses. There is some variation on how far and how fast, depending upon boundary layer winds and for more inland areas, clear skies and light, but not calm winds. At this point, am issuing a Dense Fog Advisory for areas east of the Alabama River. The passing cold front Monday will usher in a colder and drier airmass, with a significant temperature drop and a strong possibility of a Cold Weather Advisory being needed for Monday and Tuesday nights. Instability will be limited with the passing front, along with limited upper support, so am not expecting any rowdy storms Monday at this time. Looking closer to temperatures, mid to upper 70s are expected Sunday. Behind the front, high temperatures drop into the mid 40s to around 50 by Tuesday. From there, they slowly warm into the mid to upper 50s by Thursday. Low temperatures in the mid 50s to around 60 are expected Sunday night, then drop into mid 20s north of Highway 84 to low to mid 30s along and south of I-10 Monday and Tuesday nights. From there, low temperatures climb into the upper 20s along the northern border of the forecast area to mid/upper 30s south of I-10 Wednesday night. A light onshore flow will limit the Rip Risk to Low through the weekend. Ahead of the coming front, an increase in winds ahead of the front may bring a Moderate Risk for Monday. Behind the front, the strong offshore flow will drop the Rip Risk back to Low into mid week. /16 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 550 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025 VLIFR/LIFR conditions are currently being reported over the coastal areas, with IFR/MVFR conditions inland areas. These low ceilings and restrictions to visibility will improve to VFR around 16z. LIFR/IFR conditions are expected to develop along the coast by late this evening as a strong cold front approaches from the northwest. This front will pass quickly through the area after midnight into Monday. Light southerly winds 5-10 knots will abruptly shift to the northwest at around 15-20 knots behind the front with gusts as high as 30 knots. /22 && .MARINE... Issued at 1124 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025 Light onshore flow over cool waters will create dense sea fog over protected and near shore open Gulf waters again tonight, possibly persisting well into mid day Sunday. A cold front passing over area waters Monday will bring a strong offshore flow, with a Small Craft Advisory issued from around sunrise Monday into Wednesday. /16 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 76 50 64 31 / 0 50 30 0 Pensacola 74 55 67 34 / 0 50 40 0 Destin 72 57 67 34 / 10 40 70 0 Evergreen 77 47 61 27 / 0 50 40 0 Waynesboro 77 43 54 27 / 0 70 10 0 Camden 75 43 55 26 / 0 70 20 0 Crestview 76 52 66 28 / 0 40 50 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for ALZ054>060- 261>266. FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for FLZ201>206. MS...None. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ630>636. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Monday to noon CST Tuesday for GMZ630>636. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Monday to 6 AM CST Wednesday for GMZ650-655-670-675. && $$