Expires:No;;714203 FXUS63 KIWX 031120 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 620 AM EST Sat Jan 3 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures remain below normal through the weekend. - Some scattered flurries or light snow showers possible today, with another brief chance of light snow Sunday night. Little to no impacts are expected this weekend. - A warming trend beings early next week and continues through late work week. - Better chances for rain return Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 242 AM EST Sat Jan 3 2026 Longwave pattern this morning features a western CONUS ridge with an upper level trough centered across SE Canada. The local area is positioned in the inflection zone of this longwave pattern with several disturbances rippling through northwest flow from the central/Northern Plains into south central Canada. While overall synoptic forcing will be weak with broad mid level trough working across the Great Lakes later today, a respectable 120 knot upper streak is expected to dive southeast through downstream portion of the longwave ridge into the western Great Lakes. Low level moisture is highly lacking across the region this morning, with KDTX RAOB from last evening indicating a 0.13 PWAT. Some low/mid level moisture recovery is noted however looking at upstream low level flow trajectories and KOAX RAOB from last evening with 2.5-3 g/kg mixing ratios at 850 mb. This low level dry air will be stubborn to erode today given overall weak nature of synoptic lift, but some enhanced mid level frontogenesis is expected to develop from western WI into southern Lake MI later this morning. This could allow enough ice nuclei seeding to get some generation of flurries or light snow showers, particularly northeast half of the area later this morning into this afternoon. Snow accumulations are not expected at this time. In terms of temperatures today, low levels have moderated somewhat over the past 12 hours, but approach of the upstream mid level trough will support transition back to weak low level CAA later this morning into this afternoon. Despite this cold advection, slightly better mixing (although still weak) with this CAA and higher cloud bases today should support at least a few degrees of warming in comparison to yesterday. On the other side of the coin, some weak evaporative processes into the low level dry layer with top-down moistening today could make reaching the 30 degree mark a struggle. Some renewed low level thermal troughing advecting back across the southern Great Lakes this evening should promote some lake response, although good surge of mid level dry air advection behind this trough should make moisture profiles quite marginal in shallow based snow production layer. Opted to keep some flurries/slight chance PoPs to cover this scenario tonight. Below normal temperatures continue into Sunday with attention turning to a slightly more prominent short wave which is expected to race eastward from California today into Sunday. Guidance has been fairly consistent in depicting a brief but fairly strong shot of 280- 290K isentropic ascent with warm-frontal feature associated with this short wave Sunday evening. Condensation pressure deficits in this layer suggest precip initially across WI with this forcing will try to develop southeast into MI/far northern Indiana Sunday night, but more likely across extreme NE IN/far NW Ohio/south central Lower Michigan. Isentropic progs still a suggest a short temporal window of about 3 hours for any measurable precip before warm layer makes RH more marginal. Some very low probs could exist for brief light sleet or freezing rain given thermo profiles, but confidence remains too low for anything other than low snow chances at this time. Next week will feature moderating temperatures as upstream ridge deamplifies as it shifts east. This evolution should lay out warm frontal feature from Corn Belt to southern Great Lakes Monday into Tuesday, with a potential of some stratus/drizzle/fog. particularly some time in Monday night through Tuesday night period. Amplifying longwave pattern toward end of work week should allow for additional warming to well above normal with increased rain chances and perhaps a rumble of thunder heading into Thursday. Guidance continues to waffle on how to budget strengths of northern/southern stream, but given large scale support have accepted blended guidance of low likely rain PoPs for Thu. Temps should also trend back closer to normal in wake of this system next weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 616 AM EST Sat Jan 3 2026 Ceilings are slowly declining this morning but well within VFR. Abundant dry air from 900-700mb is preventing any hydrometeors from reaching the ground despite increasing radar returns over the area. Cannot completely rule out 6SM flurries later today. Late tonight, northwest flow off Lake Michigan and a shortwave passing through Michigan looks to bring a period of MVFR ceilings to KSBN (50-60% probability per the in-house blend). At KFWA, this is only a 30% probability. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Marsili AVIATION...Brown