Expires:No;;102548
FXUS63 KTOP 100900
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
300 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow ending early this morning as clouds scatter out by
  sunrise Saturday.

- Seasonable highs this weekend, followed by above normal highs
  and dry conditions next week. 


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

Remnant rain and snow bands are gradually dissipating to the east 
this morning, as the upper trough axis currently traversing the area 
weakens. Associated cloud cover should quickly dissipate thereafter 
as drier air filters in along with increasing west northwest winds 
this afternoon. Increased wind speeds this afternoon, utilizing 
latest short term guidance from 15 to 20 mph sustained, gusting to 
25 mph. A weakening, narrow perturbation within the northwest flow 
aloft passes southeast this evening, resulting in increased cloud 
cover by late afternoon and evening. Soundings and output from 
the CAMs hold confidence in better lift/chances for flurries 
north and east of the CWA. Highs today are near normal in the 
middle 40s before cooling some into the lower 40s Sunday as sfc 
high pressure slides southward and winds calm. Strong 
radiational cooling with mostly clear skies should allow temps 
to reach the lower 20s Sunday morning. Southerly winds return 
along with a warming trend commencing Monday as warm, 
downsloping flow from the west boosts highs to the 50s, peaking 
in the low 60s Tuesday. The next upper trough and cold front 
dives southward from the Great Lakes region by Wednesday, 
returning highs to the 40s Wednesday-Friday. Being on the 
backside of the system with little to no moisture to work with, 
forecast is expected to remain dry through late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1027 PM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

One final band of -SN continues to work east and is on track to
exit the KMHK terminal around 06Z. Expect steady improvements
from west to east through sunrise then the westerly winds begin
to increase by mid-morning from west to east. Brief IFR
conditions are still possible for the KTOP/KFOE terminals but
most -RASN bands across eastern areas continue to remain in the
marginal VFR categories. Expect remaining -SN bands from the
west to shift through the KTOP/KFOE terminals by 07Z or shortly
after. After the final snow band passes through, expect steady
improvements over eastern terminals as well.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Prieto
AVIATION...Drake