Expires:No;;371140 FXUS64 KLIX 281145 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 545 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 540 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025 - Areas of dense fog are likely again this morning. Commuters and holiday travelers are urged to allow extra time to their destinations. - Above average temperatures continue today with daytime highs in the 70s and quite possibly reaching the low 80s with overnight lows around 60 degrees. - Next cold front and chance of rain will be due into the region tonight through Monday morning with a cool down expected behind the front. Some showers and maybe a thunderstorm with it, but severe storms are not expected. - Cold weather advisories may be needed Tuesday as wind chill temperatures will be between 15-25 degrees for most locations. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 1137 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025 The story continues with above average temperatures again today and morning fog still likely both this morning and early Monday. That said, a cold front will move toward the region later today. Ahead of the front, moisture pooling will take place leading to additional fog. If we can get a few showers to help mix things a bit, fog may be a bit more limited than the last several days. The front looks to move southward and enter the far northwest just before daybreak Monday and continue to swiftly move through the CWFA departing mid to late morning. Very strong CAA takes shape behind the front with north or northwesterly winds increasing to generally 20-25 mph with gusts a bit higher. With the CAA, expect humidity values to tank as well dropping the min RH values down close to fire weather threshold ranges. Again, with the RH values low and the increase in low level winds, fire weather could become a concern. The only limiting factor would be rainfall and wet grounds leading up to Monday. Still, fire weather, even if conditionally speaking, looks to be a bit more of a concern on Monday. Otherwise, with temperatures dropping might need some cold weather products Monday night with wind chills dropping well into the 20s and perhaps 10's. If winds don't lighten, Monday night will struggle a bit to cool with more limited radiational cooling. Even then, consensus guidance is strongly suggesting a freeze along and north of the I10/12 corridor on the northshore and all of Mississippi. (Frye) && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday night) Issued at 1137 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025 The broad upper level trough will reside basically over the eastern half of the US to start the long term period. CAA will continue, but as the surface high moves over the region, the main story will be radiational cooling and likely freezing conditions early to midweek next week. Temperatures will remain well below average to start the long term. Eventually, the upper level pattern will transition to a more zonal pattern and with surface high pressure spreading east over the northern Gulf late in the week, a warming trend will take place just in time for the start of the new year. Globals are also pinging on a weak QPF signal established by an H5 impulse later this week. There is now some low-end POPs mentioned respectively, however, there doesn't appear to be much in the way of moisture quality to allow for anything more than a few scattered light showers (and even this appears generous at this juncture). As the upper flow pattern continues to evolve, temperatures by next weekend will warm back into the 70s during the day leading to more potentially above average days later on in the forecast period. (Frye) && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 540 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025 Boundary layer winds of 15 to 20 knots noted on VAD wind profiler data from KHDC has kept enough mixing in place through the overnight hours to prohibit widespread fog development. However, an extensive area of low stratus has formed along and north of the Interstate 10 corridor. The most impacted terminals from IFR and lower conditions are MCB, ASD, and HDC where this extensive low cloud deck is in place. Stronger mixing in the coastal regions has kept conditions largely clear at HUM, GPT, and NEW through the night. However, river fog is advecting into MSY at times and this has led to periods of IFR visibilty restrictions. These conditions should rapidly improve at MSY by 13z as temperatures rise. Later in the period, a fast moving front will slide through between 06z and 12z. A narrow band of light rain and MVFR ceilings will accompany this frontal passage at all of the terminals. Behind the front, winds will increase dramatically from the northwest with winds gusting to 30 knots at times at MSY and NEW by the end of the forecast period. && .MARINE... Issued at 1137 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025 No real relief for fog over coastal areas early this morning with the fog remaining in some areas through early afternoon. A cold front should enter the northern gulf early Monday morning. This feature will end the dense sea fog over the local waters. Winds, however, will be increasing into the 25-30kt range with a few gusts near Gale not out of the question. Conditions improve by midweek next week as high pressure begins to build into the region by late Tuesday. (Frye) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 77 44 51 28 / 10 70 10 0 BTR 80 47 54 31 / 20 60 10 0 ASD 77 46 58 29 / 10 60 10 0 MSY 79 50 60 36 / 20 50 10 0 GPT 73 48 62 32 / 10 60 20 0 PQL 76 48 61 28 / 0 50 20 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for LAZ056>060- 064>070-076>078-080-082-084>090. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ530-532- 534-536-538-550-552-555. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Tuesday for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for MSZ086>088. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ532-534- 536-538-550-552-555. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Tuesday for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. && $$ SHORT TERM...RDF LONG TERM....RDF AVIATION...PG MARINE...RDF