Expires:No;;867837 FXUS66 KOTX 060606 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1006 PM PST Mon Jan 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Moderate to heavy mountain snow Tuesday through Thursday with potential for light to locally moderate snow in the valleys. - Gusty winds Tuesday into Wednesday. && .SYNOPSIS... A stronger weather system will bring moderate to heavy mountain snow along with gusty winds and valley rain and snow Tuesday through Thursday. Conditions dry out Friday through the weekend as a ridge of high pressure builds over the region. && .DISCUSSION... ...Rounds of moderate to heavy snow to impact the mountain passes Tuesday through Thursday... A series of shortwaves circulating around a low in Alaska will bring periods of moderate to heavy mountain snow and some lowland snow to the Pacific Northwest Tuesday through late Thursday. Snow: The first wave of precipitation will arrive early Tuesday morning as precipitable water values rise from near normal to around 150% of normal. Snow levels will range from around 1000 ft in north central Washington to 2500 ft for the Camas Prairie - low enough to support snow for many lowland locations at the start of the event. Lowland precipitation type gets more challenging to forecast by Tuesday afternoon as snow levels rise to between 2500 and 3500 feet and temperatures warm into the mid to upper 30s. Lowland locations south of I-90 will likely see a transition to rain while lowlands north of I-90 will be more likely to stay as snow or a rain-snow mix. Snow and rain will taper off in the lowlands through Tuesday evening. Best chances (50 to 80 percent)for at least an inch of lowland snow Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening will be found in northeastern WA and North ID including Spokane International, Sandpoint, and Deer Park. A second wave will bring additional snow to the region Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. Significant accumulations are forecast over mountain passes Tuesday through Thursday with 2 to 4 feet for Stevens Pass and 1 to 2 feet for Lookout Pass. Wind: Pressure gradients will increase in the afternoon Tuesday leading to breezy southwest winds 15-25 mph with gusts to 35-45 mph in central and eastern WA. Winds will remain breezy Wednesday and Thursday as well with similar speeds and gusts. Friday through Sunday: Ensembles are in good agreement on a shift toward a dry and quiet pattern heading into the weekend as a ridge of high pressure builds in. /Fewkes && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFs: A low confidence TAF forecast with general restrictions occurring at the terminals on a very local scale. In Central WA, a small bank of fog between MWH-EAT will slosh back and forth with cigs as low as 100 ft AGL. For North Idaho and eastern third of WA, favorable upsloping flow is resulting in scattered MVFR stratus which is expected to slowly fill in and lower. Further south around LWS, as mid clouds clear out around 08z...there is an increasing chance for shallow ground fog to develop. In general, models are not handling the ongoing situations well leading to low confidence for future trends. One component to the forecast that leans toward less low clouds and fog and some breaks, potentially overnight into Tue morning would be increasing winds aloft with marginal LLWS around PUW/EAT. Otherwise, mid and high clouds will be on the increase after 10z with snow developing in far NE WA and N ID after around 15 to 18z. Moderate to high confidence for light snow accum at COE, SZT, CQV, DEW. Very low confidence for light snow accum at PUW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Moderate confidence for broken MVFR cigs around N Idaho and NE WA including GEG-SFF-COE. Low for PUW and LWS. Low confidence for evolution for EAT-MWH through the night. High confidence for restrictions before 08z...then confidence decreases going into Tue morning given the aforementioned increasing winds aloft. /sb ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 30 37 30 38 26 37 / 0 80 70 30 50 40 Coeur d'Alene 30 37 31 37 27 35 / 0 90 90 50 80 60 Pullman 30 38 33 38 28 35 / 0 80 90 40 70 70 Lewiston 33 42 37 45 32 43 / 10 60 90 30 40 40 Colville 29 33 27 34 23 32 / 10 80 70 30 50 40 Sandpoint 31 32 29 33 25 29 / 20 90 100 60 90 80 Kellogg 33 36 31 35 28 31 / 10 90 100 70 90 90 Moses Lake 28 41 29 43 26 42 / 0 40 10 10 10 10 Wenatchee 30 39 30 39 27 40 / 0 60 40 30 20 30 Omak 30 35 26 34 22 32 / 10 40 30 10 10 10 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 10 AM PST Wednesday for Northeast Mountains. Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM Tuesday to 7 AM PST Wednesday for Northeast Blue Mountains. Winter Storm Warning from 4 AM Tuesday to 4 PM PST Thursday for Western Chelan County. ID...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 10 AM PST Wednesday for Northern Panhandle. Winter Storm Warning from 11 AM Tuesday to 10 AM PST Wednesday for Central Panhandle Mountains. && $$