Expires:No;;236230 FXUS63 KSGF 260506 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1106 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Gusty winds will continue at times this evening, with southerly wind gusts up to 20-30 mph. - Record highs in the lower to middle 70s are expected through at least Saturday. Clouds may result in temperatures being a little cooler than forecasted at times. - 40-70% chances for showers and thunderstorms late Saturday night into Sunday will precede a cooler and drier airmass that moves in early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 230 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025 It feels like Groundhog Day looking at the synoptic pattern today. All the charts look similar to the past two days with an amplified ridge over the entire CONUS (though an energetic closed low is starting to enter the west coast now), a 25-30 kt low-level jet west of Highway 65, and a stationary boundary at the surface across central MO/KS. Record highs in most places achieved again today: Another main difference in the current conditions is the distinct lack of clouds across the area. This has allowed temperatures to warm further than they did yesterday. As of 145 PM, Springfield and Joplin both reached 77 F, which is tied for the all-time record December high for Springfield, and broken for Joplin. 15-20 mph sustained winds with 20-30 mph gusts continue: As was the story yesterday, the low-level jet west of Highway 65, along with surface cyclogenesis across KS/NE/CO has increased southwest wind speeds to 15-20 mph sustained and gusts up to 20-30 mph. As a 700 mb shortwave is progged to traverse the region this evening, the low-level jet will follow suit, which should keep gusty winds going into the evening, potentially gusting to 35 mph at times. Winds should then diminish below 10 mph by Friday morning. Low (<30%) chance for a brief period of light fog late tonight: With the passage of the 700 mb shortwave trough, there will also be a passage of a weak dry front (dryline?) at the surface. Temperatures are not expected to be impacted much by this front--maybe just a drop of a few degrees Friday. However, slightly lower dewpoints are forecast to move through with the front, which should keep any drizzle or fog chances low tonight. That said, as the dry front moves through between 5 and 9 AM Friday morning, there may be a brief band of low stratus that could build down as fog just before sunrise when temperatures are nearest to saturation. Chances are (>70% chance) any fog would not be dense. As previously mentioned, temperatures will not be heavily impacted, with temperatures reaching back into the upper 60s to middle 70s Friday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 230 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025 Record highs continue to be forecasted through at least Saturday: This portion of the forecast sounds like a broken record, and indeed, we are breaking records. Despite the mid-level shortwave moving through, the upper-level pattern will continue to feature the amplified ridge which will keep warm surface air and southerly winds in our area through at least Saturday with continued forecast highs in the lower to middle 70s. One main change to the extended forecast is that the arrival of the upper-level trough and strong surface cold front has trended well later Sunday evening, which brings record highs into play Sunday as well. The forecast currently puts a range of 66 to 71 F across the area with records sitting around 62 to 75 depending on the climate site. See the Climate Section below for more details. Lows during this period will range from 50 to the middle 60s. Friday night appears to be the coolest night with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. 40-70% chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday: With the later trough progression, this allows moisture and instability to build a bit better during the day Sunday, further increasing the chance for thunderstorms, some perhaps severe. This is still one of a few scenarios, but LREF clusters continue to reveal this as the most likely scenario with each cluster showing at least a 40% chance of MUCAPE > 500 J/kg and deep layer shear >40 kts. This is a result of most model members subscribing to the scenario of the polar trough extending well southwest across the CONUS. 11% of models still show the scenario of a more stunted polar trough which would keep instability out of the region and any precipitation more showery. These models are entirely comprised of ENS members, though the other 78% of ENS members also subscribe to a deeper trough with more instability. With all that said, current deterministic global models such as the GFS and Euro want to develop convection late Saturday night across west-central MO and southeast KS along the stationary boundary that will continue to hang around the area. MUCAPE has an 80% chance of exceeding 500 J/kg during this timeframe, which could produce an elevated severe thunderstorm threat given strong flow aloft will have no problem creating >40 kts of deep layer shear. Then, the global models have the strong surface cold front crashing through the area during the day Sunday. Depending on the timing of this front, severe thunderstorms could be more or less likely (i.e., a later frontal passage will allow more instability across the area, increasing severe weather chances). Either way, though, with such a crashing cold front and at least a little bit of instability, a thin line of gusty convection seems like the most probable scenario even if there is nothing severe worthy. This would sweep across the area sometime during the day Sunday. Trends will continue to be monitored on the chance for severe weather along with the associated hazards and timing. However, at this point, expect showers and thunderstorms Sunday (40-70% chance). Colder and drier airmass moves into the region early next week: Following the cold front passage, colder and drier weather is expected to move in. The NBM continues to trend colder with high temperatures dropping below normal after a potential record temperature day. This would be a rude awakening back to winter. Highs Monday look to be in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Lows could bottom out in the middle teens to lower 20s Sunday and Monday night. Furthermore, the strong cold air advection should bring increased winds. Currently, winds are in the 15-20 mph range with gusts up to 20-30 mph Sunday. Additionally, the dry airmass will drop relative humidity values around 30-35% Monday. While the strongest winds and lowest relative humidity values look to be disjointed by a day, fire weather may still become a concern one or both of the days. A warming trend then quickly follows the drop in temperature, though model spread increases as we go into the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1105 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025 VFR flight conditions expected for much of the TAF period. South-southwest winds overnight at 5 to 10 knots, with occasional wind gusts around 20 knots. LLWS out of the southwest at 40 to 45 knots will also be present overnight. Low confidence in a brief period of MVFR to IFR flight conditions for a few hours along frontal passage on Friday morning. Winds become west-northwest into Friday afternoon. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 400 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025 December 24 Temperature Records Broken: New Record High Temperatures: KSGF: 75 (previously 74/1955) KJLN: 77 (previously 75/2021) KUNO: 75 (previously 74/1955) New Record Warm Low Temperatures: KSGF: 57 (previously 54/1889) KJLN: 62 (previously 58/2021) KVIH: 53 (previously 52/1982) Record High Temperatures: December 25: KSGF: 74/1889 KJLN: 72/2016 KVIH: 71/1971 KUNO: 74/2021 December 26: KSGF: 68/2008 KJLN: 75/2021 KVIH: 72/1971 KUNO: 73/1971 December 27: KSGF: 71/2005 KJLN: 70/2008 KVIH: 69/2008 KUNO: 74/1971 December 28: KJLN: 69/1984 KVIH: 62/2019 KUNO: 69/1984 Record Warm Low Temperatures: December 25: KSGF: 58/1889 KJLN: 52/2016 KVIH: 46/2019 KUNO: 47/2021 December 26: KSGF: 54/1942 KJLN: 56/1954 KVIH: 55/1971 KUNO: 50/2019 December 27: KSGF: 71/2005 KJLN: 70/2008 KVIH: 69/2008 KUNO: 74/1971 && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Price LONG TERM...Price AVIATION...Perez CLIMATE...Camden