Expires:No;;210539
FXUS65 KGJT 251758
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1058 AM MST Thu Dec 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Valley rain and mountain snow (above 9000 ft) is expected
  today. Impacts from snow will be limited to the mountain 
  passes.
 
- The next round will move through late Friday into Sunday
  bringing another round of more widespread precipitation. Snow
  levels will be lower so travel impacts could reach some of 
  the valleys.

- Conditions dry out on Monday and temperatures begin to rebound
  becoming above normal by mid week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1230 AM MST Thu Dec 25 2025

Highly anamolous moisture has arrived and it will continue to
advect in from the southwest through most of the day. As of now
there is little in the way of forcing, but later today there may
be some help from a weak piece of energy and jet streak. The
instability may also play a role in the showers today and can 
not rule out a few thunderstorms. Expect mainly orographic 
precipitation today with periods of more scattered showers at
times. Precipitation becomes more orographic again tonight. The
abnormally warm temperatures mean snow levels will hover around
10 kft. Even so, if travelling over mountain passes, be aware 
that wet roads will be the rule, with maybe some snow/slushy 
roads at the highest points. 

A bit of a lull in precipitation rates is expected Thursday 
night into Friday as we will be in between systems but light 
mountain snowfall and valley rain looks to still continue 
periodically with little in the way of accumulation. The next 
push of moisture comes Friday evening with better dynamic 
forcing Friday night into Saturday as a deep trough moves 
through the Great Basin and across our area.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 333 PM MST Wed Dec 24 2025

Overnight Friday into Saturday precipitation chances increase 
across the region as the trough axis approaches the CWA. On 
Saturday morning a cold front will reach our area from the 
north, providing lift, and dropping temperatures, thus also 
dropping snow levels through the day. With the lowered snow 
levels, and increased forcing, greater snow accumulations are in
the forecast for Saturday. However, model disagreement on 
moisture timing and intensity, and consequently also snow 
totals, lowers confidence on all of the specifics of this 
weekend system. 

Models show that the strong low pressure currently off the West
Coast will finally move through the area on Sunday. Moisture 
looks to be on the decrease, but the forcing may keep showers 
around. It does appear that by late Sunday locations begin to 
dry out. The air mass this system brings will be much colder 
than what we have been through lately. Monday morning could be 
quite chilly especially for snow covered valleys if clouds 
clear. Monday through mid week looks to be mainly dry with 
temperatures warming back above normal by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1042 AM MST Thu Dec 25 2025

Rain has occurred at many TAF sites across the region this
morning. Visibility has dropped where rainfall was the 
heaviest, but this has generally been brief. Precipitation 
chances diminish through the afternoon. Strong winds aloft may 
mix down and cause gusty afternoon winds and or low level 
shear. Low and mid level cloud coverage will decrease through 
the day, and high level cloud coverage will increase tonight. 

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KJS
LONG TERM...GF
AVIATION...TGJT