AXNT20 KNHC 161031 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Fri May 16 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coastal border of Senegal and Guinea-Bissau, then curves southwestward to 05N25W. An ITCZ continues from 05N25W across 03N35W to the east coast of Amapa State, Brazil. Scattered showers are observed south of the monsoon trough from 01N to 07N and between 15W and 24W. Scattered moderate convection is found up to 160 nm along either side of the ITCZ. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at the southwestern Caribbean Sea near Costa Rica, Panama and northwestern Colombia. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A surface ridge reaches west-southwestward from a 1018 mb high near Tampa, Florida to south of Tampico, Mexico. Gentle SE to SW winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft are present at the eastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate SE to E winds with 3 to 4 ft seas exist at the central Gulf. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds along with seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail for the western Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, tighter pressure gradient between the surface ridge at the eastern Gulf and lower pressure over eastern Mexico will sustain moderate to fresh southeasterly winds and moderate seas at the western Gulf through Tue. Pulsing fresh to locally strong E winds are likely each afternoon and evening, north of the Yucatan Peninsula as a trough develops daily and drifts westward. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Convergent trade winds are coupling with divergent flow aloft to produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the northeastern and east-central basin, including waters near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Caribbean Basin. A surface ridge extending southwestward from a 1026 mb high near 33N51W to beyond the central Bahamas is supporting a trade-wind pattern across much of the Caribbean Sea. Mainly fresh E to ESE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are evident at the south-central basin, and the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate ENE to SE winds with 2 to 4 ft seas are found elsewhere in the northwestern basin. Light to gentle winds and seas at 2 to 3 ft exist near Costa Rica and Panama. Moderate to locally fresh ENE to ESE winds with 4 to 5 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong E to SE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras during the late afternoon and nighttime hours through midweek next week. Moderate to fresh easterly winds with moderate seas should linger at the south- central basin through tonight, and occur at the lee of Cuba and near the Windward Passage on Fri and Sat nights. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and rough seas are going to persist in the Atlantic waters near and east of the Lesser Antilles through Sun night. Starting Sun night, easterly trade winds and swell will gradually build at the eastern basin, then shift westward across the central basin, and into the southwestern basin after midweek. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A pronounced upper-level trough is generating scattered moderate convection north of 20N between 62W and 70W. At the central and eastern Atlantic, a surface trough/former cold front curves southwestward from near 31N28W to 26N48W. Patchy showers are occurring near and up to 150 nm south of this feature. Convergent trades are causing scattered moderate convection north of Guyana, Suriname and French Guiana. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds and seas at 4 to 5 ft are present off northeastern Florida. Otherwise, a broad sub-tropical ridge extending southwestward from a 1026 mb high near 33N51W to beyond the central Bahamas is sustaining gentle to moderate E to SE winds with 4 to 6 ft seas, north of 20N between 50W and the Florida coast/Bahamas. To the east, gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft in large northerly swell exist north of 20N between 35W and 50W. For the tropical Atlantic from 05N to 20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas at 6 to 9 ft dominate. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds with 5 to 7 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W. For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to locally fresh ENE to E winds will pulse north of Hispaniola and the Windward Passage each night through Sun night. Moderate to fresh SW winds off the northeastern Florida coast should subside to between gentle and moderate by this afternoon. In the long run, a cold front moving off the Carolina coast will bring moderate to fresh SW to W winds and building seas north of 28N from Sat night through Tue. $$ Chan