AXNT20 KNHC 050830
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Jun 5 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0830 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed near 
32W, south of 13N, moving westward at 15 kt. Isolated moderate
convection is noted near the trough axis. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Africa near 16N17W and continues southwestward to 06N27W. The 
ITCZ continues from 06N27W to 05N31W. It resumes from 05N33W to 
03N51W. No significant convection is occurring along these 
features.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough is over the SW Gulf, with a ridge of high
pressure across the northern Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds, and
seas of 3-5 ft, prevail across the Gulf waters. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to NE winds are expected 
each afternoon and evening north of the Yucatan Peninsula and into
the eastern Bay of Campeche as a trough develops daily and moves 
westward. Expect moderate to fresh SE winds across the western and
south-central Gulf through early Mon between a trough over 
northern Mexico and high pressure over the Carolinas. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure is centered over the western Atlantic, The pressure
gradient between this area of high pressure and the Colombia low
is supporting fresh to strong winds over the central Caribbean,
where seas are in the 7-9 ft range. Fresh to strong winds, and
seas of 7-8 ft, are over the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate
to fresh winds, and seas of 4-6 ft prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades and moderate to rough 
seas across most of the basin will diminish on Fri and Sat, then 
increase Sat night into early next week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the discussion waters from 31N57W to
27N69W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm east
of the front. Farther east, a surface trough extends from 30N32W
to 21N31W. High pressure prevails elsewhere over the tropical and
subtropical waters N of 20N. Light to gentle winds are in the
vicinity of the front and the trough, where seas are in the 4-6 ft
range. Elsewhere gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4-7 ft, 
prevail. 

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front SE of Bermuda will 
drift southward and dissipate through Fri. The remnant trough will
push northward Fri into Sat as high pressure builds westward over
the forecast waters. Fresh to strong winds will pulse nightly 
offshore Hispaniola through Fri. 

$$
AL