AXNT20 KNHC 302239
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Wed Apr 30 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2130 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough axis enters the eastern Atlantic through the 
southern Guinea-Bissau coast near 12N16.5W and continues 
southwestward to 03N27W, where it transitions to the ITCZ. The
ITCZ then continues southwestward to the coast of Brazil near
01S47W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring from
the Equator to 07N between 00W and 20W. Scattered moderate 
convection is occurring within 150 NM of both the monsoon trough 
and ITCZ between 20W and 28W, and from 02N to 04.5N between 45W
and 47W.

A portion of the East Pacific monsoon trough enters the SW
Caribbean near 10N83W and extends to the Colombia Low analyzed 
near 10.5N74W. Scattered moderate convection is observed in the 
SW Caribbean S of 11.5N.

GULF OF AMERICA...
 
A surface trough is analyzed along the Mexican coast from
21.5N97.5W to south of Veracruz, Mexico near 18N96.5W. Elsewhere,
an Atlantic ridge extends from the Bermuda high W-SW across the
northern Gulf. This pattern is producing moderate to fresh E-SE 
to S winds across much of the basin, with strongest winds across
NW portions. Seas are 5 to 7 ft W and NW portions, 4 to 6 ft
central portions and Straits of Florida and 3 to 4 ft NE 
portions. Fair weather dominates the basin, with a few showers 
across central portions, and elevated showers across the central 
Louisiana coastal waters.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf 
waters this week. Its associated gradient will maintain moderate 
to fresh east to southeast winds over the basin for the next few 
days. East winds will pulse to strong speeds north of the Yucatan 
peninsula and over the Bay of Campeche at tonight through Fri 
night in association with a diurnal trough. Moderate to fresh east
winds and moderate seas are expected over the Straits of Florida 
through Thu night. Winds elsewhere will begin to diminish Fri and 
into the weekend. Looking ahead, a weak cold front may reach the 
NE Gulf Sat night. 

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

Aside from the convection mentioned in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
section, upper level troughing extending from the western Atlantic
southwestward across the central Caribbean supports scattered 
showers and a few thunderstorms N of 14N and E of 76W. Recent 
scatterometer data indicated moderate to fresh E to NE winds 
prevailing across the central and W Caribbean, with gentle to 
moderate trades elsewhere E of 70W. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft 
W of 70W, and 2 to 4 ft E of 70W. 

For the forecast, high pressure north of the basin combined with 
the Colombian Low will support pulsing fresh to strong trades at 
night through the Windward Passage and south of Cuba through Thu 
night, before high pressure weakens and shifts northeastward into
the weekend. Elsewhere, rather quiet conditions are expected over
the forecast waters through the weekend. Moisture ahead of a
dissipating frontal boundary just north of the Greater Antilles
will produce periods of active weather across the NE Caribbean and
islands tonight through Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the discussion waters near 31N49W and extends
southwestward to 27.5N58W where it becomes a stationary front 
continuing southwestward to near the north coast of Hispaniola
along 70W. North of the front, a 1023 mb Bermuda High resides. A 
persistent trough is analyzed from 27N53W southwestward to the 
northern Leeward Islands. Scattered to locally numerous moderate 
convection is observed ahead of both of these features, in a 
region N of 24N between 48W and the cold front along 54W. 
Scattered showers are also observed about the trough, south and 
southwestward to the NE Caribbean Islands. Mostly fresh to 
locally strong NE winds are north of the front and extend through 
the Bahamas and Cuba, including through the Florida Straits. Seas 
there are 6 to 9 ft east of the Bahamas. Winds between the front
and 54W and light to gentle. 

To the east, a 1028 mb high is centered N of the area near 36N34W
and extends a broad ridge southward across the remainder of the 
Atlantic. Moderate to fresh trade winds dominates these waters E 
of 54. Seas there are 5 to 9 ft in N to NE swell, except 9 to 12 
ft north of 28N and east of 28W

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will begin to 
weaken Thu. A surface trough is east of the front and extends 
to near Guadeloupe in the Lesser Antilles. High pressure west of 
these features will remain about stationary through Thu, then 
begin to shift eastward into the weekend. The front and trough are
forecast to merge near 55W on Thu. A weak low may develop along 
the trough axis on Fri. This will induce fresh northeast winds 
north of 27N and east of 65W from Fri morning into the weekend. 
Looking ahead, a weak cold front may emerge off the U.S. 
southeastern coast late Sat night into Sun. 

$$
Stripling