AXNT20 KNHC 281549
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Mon Apr 28 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1540 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough axis is primarily over land across western 
Africa, however, a small segment exits the coast of southern 
Mauritania near 17N16W and reaches southwestward to near 06N20W. 
The ITCZ extends from 06N20W to the coast of Brazil near 
01S44W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 03N to 06N
between 15W and 30W.

GULF OF AMERICA...
 
A weak pressure pattern continues across the Gulf this morning.
The main influence is high pressure over the western Atlantic, 
with a trough over the eastern Gulf off Florida, and another 
trough over the southwest Gulf. No shower or thunderstorm activity
is evident, but hazy conditions are being reported in some 
sections of the western Gulf due to smoke from local agricultural 
and forest fires in eastern and southern Mexico. Light breezes and
nearly calm seas are noted in the far northeast Gulf, with gentle
to moderate breezes and 2 to 4 ft seas elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the high pressure will continue to dominate the basin
through at least Tue supporting gentle to moderate east to 
southeast winds and moderate seas across the northeastern and
north-central Gulf. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong speeds 
each evening over the eastern and central Bay of Campeche through 
the forecast period due to local effects related to a thermal 
trough coming off the Yucatan Peninsula. Fresh winds and moderate 
seas are forecast in the Straits of Florida at night through Wed 
night. Southeast winds and seas will increase over the western 
and central Gulf for Tue through Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A broad deep layer trough is over the western Atlantic reaching 
to the north-central Caribbean. Divergent southwesterly flow 
aloft ahead of the trough continues to support ample moisture 
across the central and eastern Caribbean, and resultant scattered 
showers and isolated thunderstorms over the southwest Caribbean 
coastal waters of eastern Panama and Colombia. Farther east, 
shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow is producing 
scattered passing showers across much of the eastern Caribbean and
adjacent islands east of about 70W. Drier conditions are noted 
over the northwestern Caribbean, under the influence of the 
northern flow aloft west of the trough. At the surface, the wind 
flow pattern is being driven by relatively weak high pressure that
is present north of the area to the northeast of the northern 
Bahamas, and the usual low pressure found off Colombia. This 
pattern is supporting gentle to moderate easterly flow across the 
basin along with seas of 2 to 4 ft, except for fresh northeast 
winds off Colombia, and moderate to fresh northeast to east winds 
in the lee of Cuba. Seas are 6 to 8 ft off of Colombia.

For the forecast, the high pressure north of the basin combined 
with the Colombian low will support pulsing fresh to strong winds 
at night in the Windward Passage and south of Cuba, tonight 
through at least Wed night, with mainly moderate trades elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front reaches from near Bermuda to northeast Florida,
north of a trough reaching from Puerto Rico toward Bermuda. A few
showers and thunderstorms are active off northeast Florida, and
just ahead of the front over the central Atlantic. Moderate to
fresh NE winds and 5 to 6 ft seas are noted north of the front.
Gentle breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted elsewhere to the west
of 55W. Farther east, the pattern is dominated by 1034 mb high 
pressure centered near the Azores Islands, supporting moderate to
fresh trade winds and 6 to 8 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, a reinforcing front will enter the
waters off northeast Florida late today, merge with the stationary
front and reach from near 31N57W to 25N67W to the NW Bahamas 
early Tue. The front is forecast to stall on Wed from near 31N53W 
to the Turks and Caicos Islands. Moderate to fresh north to 
northeast winds and moderate to rough seas will follow the front. 
Building high pressure in the wake of the front will dominate most
of the forecast waters for remainder of the week.

$$
Christensen