AXPZ20 KNHC 060936 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue May 6 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0915 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northwest Colombia to 09N85W to 11N97W to 10N110W to 08N120W to 07N129W. The ITCZ extends from 07N129W to beyond the area at 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 04N to 09N between 85W and 92W, also within 60 nm north of the trough between 111W-114W and within 30 nm of the trough between 84W-86W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of the the trough between 121W-123W and between 132W-134W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A 1009 mb low center is evident in an overnight satellite scatterometer data to be located southeast of Cabo San Lucas near 24N108W. Fresh to strong WNW winds are present from 22N to just offshore Cabo San Lucas and between 109W-112W as seen in the scatterometer data. Seas are 6 to 9 ft in SW to W swell with these winds, except in long-period NW swell between 110W-112W. A surface trough stretches from southern Baja California just west of Cabo San Lucas northwestward to northern Baja California and northeastward from there to the California/Arizona border. High pressure of 1029 mb continues well NW of the area. Westerly gaps winds of light to gentle speeds are are over the central and southern sections of the Gulf of California. Winds have become gentle to moderate in speeds, and south to southwest in direction over the northern section of the Gulf in response to the above mentioned trough. Seas are 3 to 5 ft over the Gulf, except 3 ft or less over the central part of the Gulf. Gentle to moderate NW winds are across the Baja offshore waters. Seas of 8 to 11 ft in NW long- period swell are over the offshore waters north of Cabo San Lazaro, and seas 6 to 9 ft south of Cabo San Lazaro. Seas are 5 to 8 ft in S to SW swell over the Mexican offshore waters. For the forecast, high pressure well to the NW of the area will slowly weaken through Wed. Fresh NW winds off Cabo San Lucas will diminish this afternoon. Large NW swell in the waters off Cabo San Lazaro will reach the Revillagigedo Islands today, and subside Wed. Light to gentle breezes, except moderate to fresh NW winds off Cabo Corrientes, will persist elsewhere off southern Mexico through Fri night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The weather remains unsettled across the waters east of about 100W as increased scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring across this part of the eastern Pacific, mainly associated with the monsoon trough. This activity is also reaching the coastal waters of Costa Rica and northern Panama, and continues ESE to the Gulf of Panama. Moderate to locally fresh SW to W winds are across these offshore waters. A weak pressure gradient elsewhere is resulting in light to gentle winds. Seas of 4 to 7 ft primarily in long-period SW swell are over the Central American offshore waters, except for higher seas of 6 to 8 ft in S to SW swell offshore the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, gentle to locally moderate breezes will persist across the waters off Central America, Colombia and Ecuador, with primarily moderate SW swell through Wed. Looking ahead, large SW swell is expected in the Ecuadorian waters tonight through Thu. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA.... High pressure of 1029 mb is located well north of the area near 34N139W. Associated ridging extends south and southeastward across the regional waters W of 110W. Overnight satellite scatterometer data shows fresh north winds south of 30N between 124W and 134W to the north of 27N. An overnight altimeter satellite pass indicates seas near 13 ft just north of 30N between 124W and 126W. Elsewhere south of the ridge, fresh N to NE winds are west of 124W, southward to the ITCZ along 07N-08N. Seas there are 6 to 9 ft in mixed swell. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the aforementioned 1029 mb high pressure will begin to drift southeastward and weaken through Wed, ahead of an approaching cold front. This will maintain fresh to locally strong N to NE winds and building seas during today, with the strongest winds and highest seas occurring east of 130W. Winds and seas will diminish tonight into Wed as the high pressure weakens. A cold front will reach near 30N140W early Thu, stall then weaken, with moderate high pressure N of the area promoting moderate to fresh trades across the waters S of 20N and W of 120W into the upcoming weekend. Seas with these trades are expected to be 5 to 7 ft. $$ Aguirre