FGUS63 KKRF 201731
ESPELK
LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO
1206 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2025
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**** THESE 90 DAY FORECASTS ARE PRODUCED WITH HEFS ****
**** AND COMPARE TO TRADITIONAL ESP AND HISTORICAL ****
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IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT ESP, HEFS, AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR
NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR
FLOODSTAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
HEFS VALUES INDICATE THE HEFS PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD
CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
ESP VALUES INDICATE THE ESP PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD
CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF ESP OR HEFS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF ESP
OR HEFS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL
IS LOWER THAN NORMAL.
:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 05/24/2025 - 08/22/2025
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR | HEFS ESP HS |HEFS ESP HS |HEFS ESP HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:ELKHORN R AT EWING NE 1N
EWIN1 9.0 10.0 12.0 | <5 <5 8 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:ELKHORN R AT NELIGH NE #2
NLIN1 11.0 12.0 14.0 | <5 7 9 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:ELKHORN R AT NORFOLK NE 2SSW
NFKN1 12.0 13.0 17.0 | 5 <5 <5 | 5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:N FK ELKHORN R AT PIERCE NE 2SE
PRCN1 12.0 14.0 16.0 | <5 <5 17 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:ELKHORN R AT PILGER NE
PLGN1 12.0 15.0 17.0 | 8 6 10 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:ELKHORN R AT WEST POINT NE 1W
WPNN1 12.0 16.0 17.0 | 18 16 17 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:ELKHORN R AT WINSLOW NE 2E
WLON1 17.0 20.0 23.0 | 13 17 20 | 5 8 10 | <5 <5 5
:LOGAN CR AT UEHLING NE 2SW
UEHN1 18.0 19.0 21.0 | <5 7 6 | <5 6 6 | <5 5 6
:MAPLE CR AT NICKERSON NE 4NW
NKRN1 11.5 13.0 17.0 | 6 17 19 | 5 16 18 | <5 5 12
:ELKHORN R AT WATERLOO NE
WTRN1 14.0 18.0 21.0 | 6 23 26 | <5 <5 5 | <5 <5 <5
:PLATTE R NORTH CHANNEL AT BRADY NE CH 1
BDYN1 7.5 9.0 11.0 | 17 17 37 | 9 6 6 | <5 <5 <5
:PLATTE R AT DARR NE 4SSE
DARN1 11.5 12.5 13.0 | 11 8 31 | 8 6 14 | 8 5 9
:PLATTE R AT OVERTON NE 3W
OVTN1 7.5 12.0 14.0 | 8 8 26 | <5 <5 6 | <5 <5 <5
:PLATTE R AT KEARNEY NE 3S
KEAN1 7.0 8.0 9.0 | <5 8 12 | <5 8 10 | <5 7 9
:WOOD R AT GIBBON NE 3ENE
GBBN1 15.0 16.0 16.5 | 9 11 29 | 8 10 26 | 7 9 21
:WOOD R AT ALDA 1SW
ALDN1 10.0 11.0 12.2 | 12 17 35 | 10 12 30 | 7 10 25
:WOOD R DIVERSION AT GRAND ISLAND NE
GIDN1 19.5 20.5 21.5 | 6 9 23 | <5 8 13 | <5 7 12
:PLATTE R AT GRAND ISLAND NE 5SE
GRIN1 6.5 7.0 7.5 | 9 10 22 | <5 10 18 | <5 9 13
:PLATTE R AT DUNCAN NE 2S
DNCN1 8.0 9.0 10.0 | <5 9 16 | <5 8 14 | <5 7 11
:SHELL CR AT COLUMBUS NE 8NE
CLBN1 30.0 31.0 32.0 | 12 7 8 | 11 6 6 | 9 5 5
:PLATTE R AT NORTH BEND NE
NBDN1 8.0 10.0 11.5 | 5 12 19 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:PLATTE R AT LESHARA NE 1SE
LESN1 8.0 10.0 12.0 | 5 12 20 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:PLATTE R AT ASHLAND NE 3NE
ASLN1 20.0 22.0 23.5 | 6 11 21 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:SALT CR AT ROCA NE
ROCN1 19.0 21.5 23.0 | <5 5 19 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:SALT CR AT LINCOLN NE 27TH ST
LCNN1 20.5 26.5 29.0 | 5 5 6 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:SALT CR AT GREENWOOD NE 1W
GRNN1 20.0 24.0 31.0 | 8 13 26 | 5 6 6 | <5 <5 <5
:WAHOO CR AT ITHACA NE
ITHN1 19.0 20.5 23.0 | 32 31 52 | 18 29 48 | <5 <5 <5
:SALT CR AT ASHLAND NE
ASTN1 20.0 21.0 26.0 | 6 9 26 | <5 6 17 | <5 <5 <5
:PLATTE R AT LOUISVILLE NE
LOUN1 9.0 11.0 12.0 | 6 17 26 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
LEGEND
HEFS = HYDROLOGIC ENSEMBLE FORECAST SERVICE SIMULATION (CURRENT)
ESP = CONDITIONAL ESP SIMULATION (CURRENT)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE HEFS
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME
PERIOD.
:...TABLE 2--HEFS EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B KRF 0524 Z DH12 /DC2505200506/DVD90/HGVFPXT/HGVFPX9/HGVFPXH
.B1 /HGVFPX5/HGVFPXG/HGVFPX1/HGVFPXF
: CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD = 05/24/2025 - 08/22/2025
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:ELKHORN R
EWIN1 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.3/ 4.1/ 4.8/ 5.5/ 5.6/
NLIN1 3.3/ 3.5/ 4.4/ 5.6/ 6.5/ 7.3/ 7.6/
NFKN1 3.2/ 3.8/ 4.2/ 5.0/ 6.6/ 10.0/ 12.7/
:N FK ELKHORN R
PRCN1 2.5/ 2.7/ 3.1/ 3.8/ 4.7/ 7.0/ 9.9/
:ELKHORN R
PLGN1 7.1/ 7.5/ 8.0/ 8.8/ 10.3/ 11.2/ 13.3/
WPNN1 4.5/ 5.0/ 6.2/ 7.6/ 11.3/ 12.7/ 13.6/
WLON1 9.3/ 9.8/ 10.7/ 14.8/ 15.6/ 17.4/ 20.3/
:LOGAN CR
UEHN1 3.5/ 4.4/ 6.2/ 7.7/ 11.4/ 14.7/ 16.0/
:MAPLE CR
NKRN1 2.4/ 3.3/ 4.2/ 5.7/ 6.9/ 8.2/ 14.1/
:ELKHORN R
WTRN1 2.8/ 3.4/ 4.5/ 9.4/ 11.8/ 13.5/ 15.8/
:PLATTE R NORTH CHANNEL
BDYN1 4.0/ 4.4/ 4.5/ 5.2/ 7.1/ 8.3/ 10.6/
:PLATTE R
DARN1 5.5/ 6.8/ 7.9/ 8.9/ 10.4/ 11.6/ 13.8/
OVTN1 2.6/ 3.1/ 3.6/ 4.3/ 5.1/ 6.5/ 8.7/
KEAN1 2.8/ 3.0/ 3.5/ 4.0/ 4.4/ 6.2/ 6.5/
:WOOD R
GBBN1 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.2/ 6.2/ 10.4/ 14.5/ 17.6/
ALDN1 3.8/ 3.9/ 4.2/ 6.0/ 8.2/ 10.8/ 12.7/
:WOOD R DIVERSION
GIDN1 8.6/ 10.7/ 11.6/ 13.4/ 15.6/ 17.1/ 20.0/
:PLATTE R
GRIN1 3.5/ 3.7/ 4.1/ 4.4/ 5.1/ 6.4/ 6.7/
DNCN1 3.3/ 3.4/ 4.1/ 4.5/ 5.4/ 6.5/ 7.0/
:SHELL CR
CLBN1 10.5/ 10.5/ 12.1/ 16.8/ 25.3/ 31.4/ 32.9/
:PLATTE R
NBDN1 3.8/ 4.0/ 4.3/ 5.1/ 6.0/ 7.3/ 8.1/
LESN1 4.4/ 4.5/ 4.9/ 5.6/ 6.6/ 7.7/ 8.1/
ASLN1 14.5/ 15.0/ 16.0/ 16.9/ 18.0/ 19.6/ 20.1/
:SALT CR
ROCN1 1.3/ 1.4/ 2.3/ 3.2/ 5.4/ 9.1/ 16.1/
LCNN1 2.1/ 2.4/ 3.0/ 4.3/ 11.9/ 16.7/ 21.1/
GRNN1 1.0/ 2.2/ 3.3/ 4.8/ 13.8/ 17.4/ 24.3/
:WAHOO CR
ITHN1 3.7/ 3.7/ 4.2/ 8.8/ 20.0/ 21.8/ 22.0/
:SALT CR
ASTN1 7.1/ 7.3/ 8.7/ 11.8/ 14.4/ 16.2/ 20.4/
:PLATTE R
LOUN1 3.6/ 4.1/ 5.1/ 6.2/ 7.4/ 8.3/ 9.1/
.END
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE HEFS
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 3--HEFS NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B KRF 0524 Z DH12 /DC2505200506/DVD90/HGVFPNT/HGVFPN9/HGVFPNH
.B1 /HGVFPN5/HGVFPNG/HGVFPN1/HGVFPNF
: CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD = 05/24/2025 - 08/22/2025
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:ELKHORN R
EWIN1 2.4/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.2/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/
NLIN1 0.7/ 0.6/ 0.5/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.3/ 0.3/
NFKN1 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.7/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.5/ 2.4/
:N FK ELKHORN R
PRCN1 2.5/ 2.3/ 2.2/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 1.8/ 1.7/
:ELKHORN R
PLGN1 6.5/ 6.4/ 6.3/ 6.2/ 6.1/ 6.1/ 6.0/
WPNN1 3.8/ 3.6/ 3.5/ 3.4/ 3.3/ 3.2/ 3.1/
WLON1 8.4/ 8.3/ 8.1/ 8.0/ 7.9/ 7.8/ 7.7/
:LOGAN CR
UEHN1 3.1/ 3.0/ 2.8/ 2.7/ 2.6/ 2.5/ 2.5/
:MAPLE CR
NKRN1 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/
:ELKHORN R
WTRN1 1.7/ 1.5/ 1.3/ 1.1/ 1.0/ 0.8/ 0.7/
:PLATTE R NORTH CHANNEL
BDYN1 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/
:PLATTE R
DARN1 4.6/ 4.0/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3/
OVTN1 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/
KEAN1 2.6/ 2.4/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/
:WOOD R
GBBN1 4.1/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0/
ALDN1 4.0/ 3.9/ 3.8/ 3.8/ 3.8/ 3.8/ 3.8/
:WOOD R DIVERSION
GIDN1 11.2/ 10.9/ 9.0/ 8.5/ 8.5/ 8.5/ 8.5/
:PLATTE R
GRIN1 3.4/ 3.2/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/
DNCN1 3.2/ 3.1/ 3.0/ 2.7/ 2.7/ 2.7/ 2.7/
:SHELL CR
CLBN1 10.5/ 10.5/ 10.5/ 10.5/ 10.4/ 10.4/ 10.4/
:PLATTE R
NBDN1 2.4/ 2.3/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/
LESN1 3.7/ 3.6/ 3.4/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.2/ 3.2/
ASLN1 13.5/ 13.5/ 13.3/ 13.2/ 13.1/ 13.1/ 13.0/
:SALT CR
ROCN1 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.3/ 1.3/ 1.3/ 1.3/ 1.3/
LCNN1 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/
GRNN1 1.5/ 1.4/ 1.2/ 1.0/ 1.0/ 1.0/ 0.9/
:WAHOO CR
ITHN1 4.1/ 3.9/ 3.8/ 3.7/ 3.7/ 3.6/ 3.6/
:SALT CR
ASTN1 7.0/ 7.0/ 7.0/ 7.0/ 7.0/ 7.0/ 7.0/
:PLATTE R
LOUN1 2.7/ 2.6/ 2.3/ 2.2/ 2.1/ 2.0/ 1.9/
.END
$$