FGUS72 KMHX 211921
ESFMHX
NCC013-031-049-055-061-079-095-103-107-117-133-137-147-177-187-
220730-

Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
321 PM EDT Thu Mar 21 2019

...THE WINTER FLOOD OUTLOOK CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL POTENTIAL FOR 
FLOODING ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA...

Each winter and early spring, the National Weather Service office
in Morehead City, North Carolina issues a series of flood 
potential outlooks. These outlooks estimate the potential for 
river flooding across our Hydrologic Service Area (HSA). The HSA 
includes Eastern North Carolina. The outlook is based on the 
current assessment of hydrometeorological factors which
contribute to river flooding. These factors include, but are not 
limited too recent precipitation, soil moisture, snow cover and 
snow water equivalent, stream flows, river ice and expected
future weather conditions.

Overall...Late winter has seen a break in the wet pattern the 
southeast U.S. had seen from fall into early winter. In the last 
14 days we have seen below normal precipitation over most of the 
area. The potential for flooding is still above normal with many 
rivers still above normal, ground conditions still wet, and the 
potential for above normal rain still forecast.

Past precipitation has been near to a little below normal across 
the region over the past 30 days, however well above normal rain 
in previous months has led to above normal stream flows. 
Reservoirs throughout the region remain at or above their target 
pool levels for March. There is no significant snowpack across 
Eastern North Carolina at this time that would have an impact on 
winter or spring flooding.

Long term precipitation...Based on CPC long lead outlooks, the 
seasonal outlook from March through May shows chances for above 
normal rainfall. To see the forecast from the Climate Prediction 
Center. here is the link: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

If needed, the next Winter/Spring Flood Outlook will be issued by
April 4th.


$$