FGUS73 KSGF 281400
ESFSGF
MOC097-105-119-145-153-161-169-203-209-KSC011-021-311200-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Springfield MO
835 AM CDT Wed May 28 2025
...Mostly normal to above normal chances for river flooding through late August...
Based on current soil and streamflow conditions and extended climate outlooks,
there is a generally a near normal to above normal chance for river flooding along larger rivers
across the Hydrologic Service Area. This includes the Osage, Gasconade, Spring,and Elk
River basins and larger tributaries. The exception being the Osage River at Taberville with
a below normal chance for flooding.
In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.
CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.
HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.
When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.
...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
Valid Period: 05/24/2025 - 08/22/2025
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Little Osage River
Fulton 22.0 25.0 30.0 : 62 55 44 41 <5 <5
Horton 41.0 45.0 50.0 : 72 75 9 12 <5 <5
:Marmaton River
Fort Scott 38.0 42.0 43.0 : 19 19 6 6 5 5
Nevada 20.0 26.0 31.0 : 72 57 22 26 6 9
:Osage River
Taberville 23.0 34.0 46.0 : 33 49 6 9 <5 <5
:Sac River
Caplinger Mills 16.0 19.0 28.0 : 47 42 37 37 <5 <5
:Gasconade River
Hazelgreen 21.0 26.0 30.0 : 7 9 <5 7 <5 <5
:Roubidoux Creek
Waynesville 7.0 14.0 20.0 : 37 28 5 5 <5 <5
:Big Piney
Fort Leonard Wood 8.0 15.0 23.0 : 45 28 16 10 5 5
:Gasconade River
Jerome 15.0 25.0 30.0 : 16 15 6 6 <5 <5
:Spring River
Carthage 10.0 14.0 20.0 : 20 21 <5 <5 <5 <5
Waco 19.0 30.0 33.0 : 16 19 <5 <5 <5 <5
Baxter Springs 14.0 22.0 30.0 : 21 22 7 8 <5 <5
:Shoal Creek
Joplin 11.5 16.0 18.0 : 16 15 <5 5 <5 <5
:Elk River
Tiff City 15.0 20.0 25.0 : 17 18 5 10 <5 <5
Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet
In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.
...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Exceeding Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 05/24/2025 - 08/22/2025
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Little Osage River
Fulton 4.2 5.0 14.0 23.7 26.8 27.4 28.9
Horton 35.4 35.4 40.2 43.1 44.2 44.9 48.4
:Marmaton River
Fort Scott 12.8 16.5 25.2 31.0 36.2 39.3 43.7
Nevada 17.2 17.2 17.2 22.8 26.0 29.0 33.1
:Osage River
Taberville 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.4 26.1 27.7 38.1
:Sac River
Caplinger Mills 9.1 9.3 10.5 15.0 21.8 25.4 26.2
:Gasconade River
Hazelgreen 2.6 2.6 2.7 3.5 7.1 11.9 25.0
:Roubidoux Creek
Waynesville 4.6 4.6 4.6 6.1 8.0 10.0 15.3
:Big Piney River
Fort Leonard Wood 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.7 11.6 15.6 23.2
:Gasconade River
Jerome 6.9 6.9 7.1 8.9 12.0 20.9 26.9
:Spring River
Carthage 3.9 3.9 4.3 5.8 9.2 11.8 13.6
Waco 3.4 4.2 6.7 10.8 14.8 22.5 25.3
Baxter Springs 4.5 5.1 6.0 8.3 12.6 18.2 26.4
:Shoal Creek
Joplin 3.1 3.1 4.6 6.0 8.6 13.9 15.6
:Elk River
Tiff City 5.5 5.5 6.4 8.3 11.1 18.7 20.2
In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.
...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Falling Below Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 05/24/2025 - 08/22/2025
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Little Osage River
Fulton 3.4 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0
Horton 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.4
:Marmaton River
Fort Scott 7.8 7.4 7.1 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.6
Nevada 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0
:Osage River
Taberville 9.3 9.2 9.1 9.0 9.0 8.9 8.9
:Sac River
Caplinger Mills 7.6 6.9 6.2 6.0 5.7 5.6 5.6
:Gasconade River
Hazelgreen 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6
:Roubidoux Creek
Waynesville 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1
:Big Piney River
Fort Leonard Wood 2.3 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8
:Gasconade River
Jerome 2.5 2.1 1.9 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5
These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined.
Visit our web site weather.gov/sgf for more weather and water
information.
The next outlook will be issued in late June.
$$
Grout