FOCN45 CWWG 301900
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE PRAIRIE AND ARCTIC STORM
PREDICTION CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2:00 PM CDT WEDNESDAY
APRIL 30 2025.

ALERTS IN EFFECT...BLIZZARD WARNINGS FOR KINNGAIT, RANKIN AND
CHESTERFIELD INLET. SNOWFALL WARNING FOR KIMMIRUT.

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...THERE IS A SLOWLY APPROACHING LOW OVER THE BERING
SEA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. UPPER RIDGE OVER BC AND THE YUKON.
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE EASTERN PRAIRIES AND IS GIVING WAY
TO AN ADVANCING TROUGH OVER SASKATCHEWAN, CONNECTED TO UPPER LOWS
OVER NORTHERN BAFFIN BAY AND THE CENTRAL KIVALLIQ. ANOTHER BROAD
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM BAFFIN THROUGH QUEBEC TO NEW ENGLAND.

AT THE SURFACE, A 1000 MB LOW IS OVER LAKE WINNIPEG WITH A COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH SE MB. A 1025 MB HIGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
WITH RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH ACROSS EASTERN HUDSON BAY. A 995 MB
IS OVER CORAL HARBOUR AND IS TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD.

DISCUSSION...

WESTERN PRAIRIES...A DISTURBANCE IS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PRAIRIRIES TODAY, BRINGING SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION TO
NORTHERN
ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. ROUGHLY 5MM OF RAIN AND 2-4CM OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED MAINLY IN NORTHERN SK OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. FOG IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF NORTHERN ALBERTA.

WARM TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE WEST TO END THE
WEEK, AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES IN.

EASTERN PRAIRIES...GENERALLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TODAY FOR SOUTHERN
SK AND ALL OF MANITOBA, WITH BOTH UPPER AND SURFACE TROUGHING OVER
THE REGION. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS ENCOMPASSES SOUTHERN MANITOBA,
WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA AND ALSO SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND DIMINISH OVER THE
AOR THROUGH THE DAY - JUST FOR ANOTHER WEAK LOW TO MOVE AN AREA OF
SHOWERS INTO CENTRAL SK THIS EVENING FOLLOWING A DISTURBANCE
TRACKING SOUTHWEST FROM THE HIGH LEVEL, AB AREA. HAVE TO KEEP ONE
EYE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS PRECIPITATION; SUB ZERO
TEMPERATURES COULD MEAN A BURST OF SNOW, PERHAPS 5 CM, AS FAR
SOUTHEAST AS GRAND RAPIDS, MB. THE LOW WILL SHUNT SOUTHWARDS,
KEEPING THE SHOWERY ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS OF SK AND MB ON
THURSDAY.

NT...A DEPARTING LOW IS BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN REGIONS
OF THE NT THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.

NU...IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AFFECTING THE EASTERN ARCTIC AT LARGE,
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE UNDERWAY ON THE KIVALLIQ COAST.
RELENTLESS BLOWING SNOW UPSTREAM HAS INDEED KEPT THE LOW LEVELS
SATURATED AND RANKIN/CHESTERFIELD BOTH DEGRADED TO BLIZZARD A
FEW HOURS AFTER DAWN. BAKER AND ARVIAT ARE ALSO HELD DOWN TO NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. WINDS DIMISH FOR THE MAINLAND THIS EVENING.

BEYOND THE COASTAL KIVALLIQ, THERE ARE THREE MAIN SITES THAT HAVE
SPECIAL CONCERNS. STARTING WITH CORAL HARBOUR, THE LOW WILL PASS
DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTHAMPTON ISLAND TOWNSITE. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL,
ALLOWING FOR 5 CM OF SNOW IS UNDERWAY - A QUICK BURST OF 3 CM
IN A HOUR EARLIER THIS MORNING, BUT THE MAIN TROWAL HAS MOVED EAST
LEAVING LIGHTER SNOWFALL FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. WIND FIELD WILL
START ON SHORE BUT SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY AS THE LOW PULLS OFF THROUGH
THE DAY. NORTHWESTERLY IS A DRAINAGE DIRECTION FOR CORAL, WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME ADDED MOMENTUM, RESULTING IN NW60G80 WINDS. BUT
THIS WILL ALSO DRY OUT THE PROFILE, HOLDING UP THE VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS - AND THE PEAK WINDS ARE OF RATHER SHORT DURATION.

AS FOR KINNGAIT, GIVEN THE UPSTREAM BURST OF HEAVY SNOW, AND THE
QUICK DETERIORATION FOR KIVALLIQ WITH MODERATE SATURATION, THE WATCH
HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO BLIZZARD WARNING. TODAY, 5 TO 10 CM OF SNOW
WILL FALL AT THE TOWNSITE AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE WEST OF THE FOXE
PENINSULA. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP IN EARNEST THIS EVENING AND
WILL REMAIN STRONG UNTIL THURSDAY LATE MORNING. THE SYNOPTIC WIND
PATTERN WILL BE BE SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY, TERRAIN BLOCKING THE
STRONGER WINDS FOR THE TOWNSITE. AS THE BROAD PATTERN SHIFTS MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY, THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FUNNELED INTO THE CHANNEL
RESULTING IN WESTERLY 60G80 OVERNIGHT. THE PROFILE STARTS QUITE WARM
WHILE THE SNOW IS FALLING, BUT STEADY COOLDOWN AND CONTINUED LOW
LEVEL SATURATION THROUGH THE NIGHT MAKE A FAVOURABLE BLIZZARD
WINDOW. ENDTIME IS TRICKIER AS THE COOLING SLOWS THURSDAY MORNING,
THE PROFILE STARTS TO DRY, BUT THE WINDS REMAIN STRONG FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS... BUT IMPROVEMENT IS MOST LIKELY ENDING NEAR MIDDAY.

FOR KIMMIRUT, LOWER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS LIGHTING UP THE TOWNSITE
WITH 15 TO 25 CM OF SNOW AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH AND CONTINUOUS
ONSHORE FLOW OCCURS WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
TAKING A LOOK AT THE HRDPS NORTH SHOWS THAT GUIDANCE IS MOSTLY
GENERATING THESE HIGHER PRECIPITATION VALUES AGAINST THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO THE NORTH, AND THE LOW RES GUIDANCE IS SMEARING THESE OVER
A BROADER AREA. STRUCTURES WILL LIKELY SEE 10 TO 15 CM OF SNOW, BUT
THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE TOWNSITE.

END/KNIGHT/PIMISKERN