FXAK67 PAJK 311312
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
512 AM AKDT Sat May 31 2025

.SHORT TERM...Rain showers continue across the panhandle through
the day on Saturday as a decaying low moves inland and 
disintegrates into an open trough. In the immediate wake of the 
low, continuing onshore flow along with moisture still lingering 
from the most recent system will see rain showers continue across 
the area through the day. As a ridge begins slowly trying to 
build over the area, southerly flow will also begin to make its 
presence felt, mainly across the central inner channels on 
northward as variable winds turn out of the S, with flow in 
northern Lynn Canal reaching up to 25 kt by late in the afternoon,
and winds in Icy Strait and near Cross Sound reaching 20 kt out 
of the West.

As the ridge continues to strengthen, shower coverage will
diminish from N to south through the afternoon and evening hours.
Unfortunately, the fact that the ridge's northern axis will be
anchored over the panhandle means that some moisture will still
manage to move over the ridge and reach SE AK, and so have kept 
lingering chances of rain showers for the area. One departure from
the previous forecast has also been the addition of some chances 
of a few rumbles of thunder late Saturday night through much of 
Sunday morning across the northern panhandle. A mid level 
shortwave trough will race across the northern part of the area, 
and given cooler temperatures aloft, there may be enough 
instability for a few convective thunderstorms - particularly in 
places like Skagway, Haines, and along their respective highways.

Temperatures remain similar to the past few days, with high
temperatures for Saturday in the low to mid 50s, and low
temperatures reaching into the low or mid 40s. 

.LONG TERM.../Sunday through /The ridge over the gulf will sharpen
as it becomes aligned with the panhandle on Sunday. This will
allow for some more onshore flow to the NE gulf coast, but make
for NWLY flow and clearing over the Southern Inner Channels. The
Ketchikan region (and Kake) has the highest confidence in 
sunshine and low POP on Sunday. Elsewhere isolated to scattered
showers are still possible, but with lower confidence. Models had
higher POP but believe they are largely seeing that due to the 
mountains and overspreading amounts. Still, compared to recently,
the weekend is looking dry. 

The next system approaches from the west on Sunday night into
Monday, reaching Yakutat first. Pattern recognition favors the
solutions that have the front weakening as it pushes into the
ridge, therefore amounts are looking on the lighter side. After
that the ridge rebuilds and keeps moisture directed at Anchorage,
but most models show that system breaking through to our side of
the gulf Wednesday/Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR conditions persist this morning but some areas of VFR
and IFR and some very isolated LIFR conditions exist across the 
panhandle. Lowered CIGs and VIS are expected to continue through 
the morning as the low moving inland continues to bring rain 
showers to the area. With the low weakening, the concern for LLWS 
has decreased but there still remains a concern for icing and 
turbulence from the AAWU. Conditions are expected to improve 
through the afternoon and evening hours but onshore flow could 
still bring some showers inland that drop conditions quickly. 
Otherwise, a generally improving trend heading into Sunday is 
expected before our next system moves in and brings more sub ideal
flying conditions. 

&&

.MARINE...Outside Waters: Winds and seas both diminish through
Saturday as a weakening low moves inland. While winds in the
southern outer coastal waters during the early morning will be 
fresh to strong breezes, by late in the afternoon, anticipate 
largely moderate breezes, with winds of ~15 kt across the outer 
coastal waters. Wave heights Saturday morning of between 7-11 ft,
with the higher wave heights further south, dwindle to 5-7 feet 
by Saturday night A relative lull in winds and seas is then 
expected before a front moves in from the W on Monday, bringing 
wave heights back up to 10-12 ft.

Inner Channels: As a decaying low wraps up and moves eastward 
over Baranof Island and into the panhandle, the southern side 
will see winds swing to the west with speeds around 10 to 20 
knots, with the higher wind speeds in E/W oriented channels or in 
areas prone to gap winds. For Icy Strait and Cross Sound, lighter
winds will swiftly swing to the west, and strengthen to 15 to 20 
kt through Saturday. Lynn Canal will see prevailing southerly 
winds for Saturday, although winds in southern Lynn could be 
variable early in the morning. Wind speeds in Lynn will also 
increase through the day, reaching near 25 kts in North Lynn by 
the afternoon. Speeds decrease Saturday night. Wind speeds on 
Sunday will be lighter around the panhandle, at around 5 to 10 kts
for most areas.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-641>643-661>664. 

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM....Ferrin
AVIATION...SF
MARINE...GFS

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