FXAK67 PAJK 081406
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
606 AM AKDT Sun Jun 8 2025

.SHORT TERM.../Through Tonight/...Key Points:
 - A Gale force low has moved into the northeastern Gulf of Alaska
   & is continuing to move northeastward. 
 - Heaviest rain and highest QPF amounts will continue to be
   located around Yakutat into this morning. 

Details: Gale-force winds over the eastern Gulf will continue 
diminishing through the day, today. Winds of Strong Wind criteria 
for areas north of the Icy Strait corridor will diminish as we 
progress through the day, today, with Skagway holding onto the 
stronger winds for the longest. As for precipitation, the forecast
remains on track for Yakutat to receive the most Storm Total 
Rainfall of around between 1.5 to 2 inches in 24 hours once it is 
all done. Rainfall rates will continue to diminish through the 
day, today, for Yakutat as the system pushes past the area. Higher
elevation areas will see higher rain totals once the weather 
system moves past the region. The rest of the Panhandle will see 
much lighter rain with rain totals of between around 0.5 to 0.75 
inches for the central Panhandle and even less for southern areas.
Rain chances will decrease through today, although times of 
moderate to heavy rainfall are still possible until very late 
today into early Monday.

.LONG TERM...
Key messages:
 - Less active weather on the horizon to start the week as a broad
   surface ridge builds over the gulf. 
 - A weak upper level low will create times of light precipitation
   for the northern panhandle, into the start of the week. 
 - Ridging will continue with no significant weather pattern
   developing.

Details: The low over gulf will move northeast and diminish 
Sunday into Monday. After the weekend system leaves the area, 
broad ridging will build over the gulf allowing for a chance of 
drier weather over the panhandle with areas of light 
precipitation. Areas of dry air at 700 mb is what helps to keep 
any precipitation very light. Although, an upper level trough and 
embedded low will be what helps to still bring that moisture to 
the north and central panhandle. The forecast challenge continues 
to be, how much precipitation will fall during this time. Rain 
chances again increase on Wednesday to the end of the week, but 
with no significant impacts expected. Surface ridging continues 
into the weekend with no significant or strong weather pattern 
developing. Temperatures will remain below typical for this time 
of year with high temperatures in the mid 50s to low 60s and 
minimum temperatures in the high 40s.

&&

.AVIATION.../through 12z Monday/
It has been a night of ups and downs here in SE AK. The recent 
passing weather system has brought flying conditions down to IFR 
with CIGs down to 500 to 700 feet and/or VIS down to 2-3 SM. Or, 
flying conditions have been fine with no rain reported, CIGS at 4000 
feet and VIS at 10 SM.

Looking ahead to today, it's looking like the inner channels, over 
marine areas, look to have high-end MVFR to low-end VFR conditions 
through today and tonight. Over land areas and TAF sites, mostly 
MVFR conditions are expected through tonight. Improving conditions 
late tonight into Monday.

LLWS will be on the downward trend today. That being said, some 
lingering LLWS will still be around the northern half of the 
panhandle until around 18 to 20z. Afterwards, hi-res model LLWS 
probability drops pretty significantly. 

&&

.MARINE...Outside Waters: Winds will diminish through the day on 
Sunday, reaching 10 to 20 kt by Sunday night across the Outer 
Coastal water zones, and then diminishing to 5-15 kt by Monday for 
most areas. Though, we anticipate that areas around the Dixon 
entrance may remain moderately more elevated (~20 kt). These 
conditions are expected to last through at least the first half of
the week. 

Inner Channels:
Wind speeds over the Inner Channels will remain around 20 to 30
kts through Sunday, peaking at up to around 35 kts, at times,
through the morning for northern Lynn Canal, before slowly
diminishing beginning Sunday night. By late Monday wind speeds
will be largely 5 - 10 kt, barring parts of Northern Lynn Canal
and far southern Clarence Strait, which will see winds of around
15 kt. These lower wind speeds will likely last through the first
half of the week.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ318.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012. 
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-013-022-031>033-035-053-641>644-
     651-652-661>664-671-672. 

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLC
LONG TERM....EAB
AVIATION...GJS
MARINE...JLC

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