FXAK68 PAFC 021330 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 530 AM AKDT Fri May 2 2025 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)... At 4 AM this morning, a surface low is situated in the northwestern Gulf about halfway between Seward and Kodiak City. An occluded front attached to the low is sweeping over the northern Gulf and is poised to drive inland by mid-morning. The first upper-level wave out ahead of the surface front is now to the west of Cook Inlet with the widespread rain associated with it continuing to track west of Anchorage and Kenai. Winds along the surface front are quickly picking up with southeasterly gusts along the immediate Southcentral coast and Prince William Sound. Rising pressures and an unstable airmass behind the front will help to increase these gusts as the front moves inland this morning. Expect a rapid increase in gusts for the typical gap locations by late morning or early afternoon. The strongest winds and gusts will likely be through Passage Canal and and across Whittier and Portage and along Turnagain Arm. Widespread showers will continue for the coastal mountains as the southeasterly flow persists. Showers will also pick up across the Copper River Basin and northern Susitna Valley later this morning as the upper-level wave with the front moves into the interior. For the western Kenai Peninsula north into the southern Mat-SU valleys, breaks of sunshine will allow for an increase in daytime heating and the potential for added instability. This, combined with another wave pushing inland, may lead to the development of a few isolated thunderstorms. An isolated thunderstorm is also possible across the northern Gulf and around Cordova. The Turnagain Arm wind, along with other gap winds, will diminish Friday night as the low near Kodiak devolves into a trough and pushes eastward. Also, precipitation chances will similarly diminish as the low devolves, leaving lingering showers through Saturday as a weak ridge builds. Sunday will see a front from a low over the Alaska Peninsula slam into the coast, driving heavy precipitation and a barrier jet along the coastline. Inland areas will be sheltered from most precipitation due to the mountains and will see lower precipitation chances. Once again, higher elevations generally above 2500 ft could see snowfall, especially at night. Winds will be driven up as well from this front. By Sunday afternoon gap winds will increase to storm force near the Barren Islands with high end gale force winds in the other gap regions. There is some uncertainty with regards to winds especially with the aforementioned barrier jet. Some guidance has it at storm force strength while others keep it at gale force. -TM/JAR && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today through Sunday night)... A low in the Gulf of Alaska sends a front westward into Southwest Alaska today, bringing light rain to interior Bristol Bay and the Lower Kuskokwim Valley. Much of the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay coast remain dry, with Dillingham and vicinity likely exceeding 50 degrees today with northwesterly downslope flow. If skies remain clear, which is by no means certain, temperatures could reach into the mid 50s. Behind the front, relatively clear skies will combine with cold air aloft to produce some limited instability that will support shower development for portions of the Western Alaska Range. There is a slight chance that one or two of these storms is strong enough to produce a few lightning strikes this afternoon/evening. The front weakens over Southwest Alaska tonight, with precipitation turning showery and largely clearing out for Saturday. However, a shortwave nudging in from Interior Alaska could lead to continued rainfall for portions of the Lower Kuskokwim Valley. During the overnight hours, there is potential for some light, non-accumulating snow. Saturday night, a North Pacific low tracks toward the Gulf and pushes a front into Southwest Alaska. The main impact from this will be gusty easterly winds through Kamishak Gap into Bristol Bay, with light precipitation limited to portions of Bristol Bay. This general pattern continues as the low lingers near Kodiak Island through at least Sunday night. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Sunday night)... A gale force North Pacific low tracks along and south of the Aleutians through this weekend. Its front pushes through the central Aleutians today, beginning initially as rain but with snow mixing in as cooler air filters in from the north, especially by tonight, at which point precipitation likely transitions over to snow showers. Accumulation is expected to be little to none. A similar story is expected as the front reaches the eastern Aleutians tonight, with initial steady rain or a rain/snow mix slowly transitioning over to snow showers by Saturday night. Expecting little to no snow accumulation with temperatures remaining above freezing at sea level, though higher elevations of the islands may see several inches of snow. There are some gales in the forecast mainly south of the central Aleutians. As the low strengthens south of the Alaska Peninsula on Sunday, gale force winds spread across the eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula. Light rain and snow showers continue to fall on the back side of the low heading into early next week. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Monday through Thursday)... A well developed upper level low weakens as it meanders between the Western Gulf of Alaska and the Eastern North Pacific through the week. With this low to the East of Kodiak Island, considerable energy drives into Southcentral Alaska from Kodiak Island to the Canadian border. This low opens up to a broad trough over Mainland Alaska and the Gulf by Thursday. A higher amplitude ridge pushes across the Bering and flattens out over the Alaska Peninsula for midweek. A closed high sets up over the Russian Far East. A model blend of ECMWF and GFS carries the main features through the period, as the Canadian model tends to run more slowly. Greatest uncertainty remains with the smaller details. A strong surface low South of Central AKPEN and its front extending across the Northern Gulf of Alaska pushes heavy rain over Kodiak Island and the Kenai Peninsula Monday and Tuesday before spread along the rest of Southcentral Alaska by Wednesday. A strong barrier jet sets up across the Northern Gulf with gale force winds and storm force gusts, diminishing Tuesday. Higher elevations will get snow across Southcentral Alaska through Thursday. A large area of gusty winds moves over the Eastern Bering and AKPEN into the North Pacific, diminishing Tuesday. A strong North Pacific low and front brings heavy rain into the Western Aleutians and Bering Monday, spreading to the Eastern Aleutians and Bering by Wednesday before curving into the North Pacific for Thursday. - Kutz && .AVIATION... PANC...VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period. Light rain showers this morning will continue to taper off by mid to late morning as southeast flow aloft strengthens. Thus, any ceilings around 5000 ft should also lift. Light northerly winds this morning will become southeast this afternoon with gusts around 25 to 30 kts at times. While gusts taper off during the evening, winds continue to remain out of the south to southeast into Saturday morning. && $$