FXAK69 PAFG 012156 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 156 PM AKDT Thu May 1 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A dissipating 998mb low in SW AK is phasing into a low in the Gulf of Alaska which is sitting at 993mb. A strong front from the Gulf of Alaska will move north over the Alaska Range providing southeast flow, moisture, instability and plenty of lift. This results in rain and snow, locally heavy at times to the Central and Eastern Interior beginning Friday morning and continuing through Saturday. There is a slight chance for a thunderstorm tomorrow afternoon along the Alcan Border. Otherwise, Sunday is looking to be the nicest day of the weekend but there remains a slight chance for a thunderstorm around Eagle. Otherwise, everyone dries out and stays seasonably warm in the Interior, and seasonably chilly along the West Coast and North Slope. && .KEY WEATHER MESSAGES... Central and Eastern Interior... - Moderate to heavy rain and snow on Friday. - There will be convective entities accompanied by this, so wherever the heavier rain/snow bands set up will determine who gets the heaviest precipitation. - Overall, expect around 0.10-0.30" of rain in the Interior Valleys with heavier amounts up to 0.50" possible in those heavier convective bands. - Elevations above 1500ft in the Interior will remain mostly snow with 2-5 inches expected. Some rain may mix in at the onset on Friday but there will be a transition to all snow overnight. - A lot of uncertainty with precipitation end time, may be Saturday afternoon or night as showers and downpours persist. - Sunday is looking like the nicest day of the weekend, but isolated showers are still possible. - Temps are cooler than normal tomorrow and Saturday but warm up to near seasonal norms on Sunday before another brief cool down early next week. West Coast and Western Interior... - Rain and elevation snow chances on Friday, especially in the Interior. - Rain reaches Tanana/McGrath Friday afternoon and continues progressing north/west to Galena during the evening and to the Nulato hills overnight. - Rain showers in the valleys and snow showers above 1500ft continue through Saturday and into Sunday. - Expect 0.10-0.30" of rain in the valleys of the Western Interior with 1-3" of snow in the higher terrain. Along the Coast, a trace to 1 inches of snow is expected through Sunday. - Temperatures remain around or slightly below seasonable norms through this weekend. North Slope and Brooks Range.. - Stratus and fog continues at times, especially overnight along the coast. - Patchy dense fog in Atigun/Anaktuvuk Passes possible each morning with snow showers each afternoon. - Greater risks for snow with light accumulations will be Friday night through Saturday evening. A few inches of snow are possible, especially in Atigun Pass. - Drier weather returns on Monday in the Brooks Range with below normal temperatures expected. && .FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION... An elongated trough persists from SW AK to the Gulf with a strong front moving from the Gulf into the Interior tomorrow. The front will bring strong southeast flow and a plethora of lift. This will be the culprit for heavy precipitation in the Interior Friday and Saturday. The front will try to close off in the Western Interior Saturday night leading to showers in the Western Interior through Sunday. Otherwise, the entire area will dry out by Monday as quieter weather returns. && .HYDROLOGY... The Yukon River at Eagle broke up around 2am today with a push of water and ice still moving past Eagle. Breakup is progressing downstream and could reach Circle by early Friday. Satellite images from Wednesday showed ice remains in the main channels at Circle and upstream. Exact timing for breakup at Circle will depend on how often the breakup front is stalled by ice jams along the way. Ice jamming at Circle is possible and could result in minor to moderate flooding. There have been reports of water over banks upstream, so monitor conditions closely and take preparatory actions now. && .FIRE WEATHER... Tomorrow through Saturday, we will be watching for widespread wetting rains (as well as elevation snow) with 0.10 to 0.30" of rain in Interior Valleys and 2 to 5 inches of snow in the terrain above 1500ft. Below 1500ft, there is a 40% chance to see over 0.30 inches of rain, but a 75+% chance for at least 0.10 inches through Saturday. This round of rain will be convective, meaning there will be downpours and heavier amounts of rain in localized areas of the Interior. Along with this, there are slight chances for thunderstorms Friday afternoon and Saturday afternoon from Eagle to Northway. Nonetheless, this precipitation moves into the Western Interior with chances for rain/snow as well and similar amounts of QPF. Scattered showers will continue in the Western Interior on Sunday with isolated showers in the Central/Eastern Interior, especially during the afternoon. && .EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7... Generally quiet weather for Northern Alaska. High pressure remains in the Arctic but does begin to drop south early next week, so there may be an uptick in easterly winds along the Coast. Otherwise, a low anchors itself in the Gulf of Alaska near or south of Kodiak Island. This, combined with the high dropping south in the Arctic may bring a couple of breezy and cool days in the Interior early next week before a warm up back to seasonal norms. There are hints that ridging will win out late next week resulting in a more "summer-like" pattern. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AK...Flood Watch for AKZ833. PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804-805. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806-812-854. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ806-812-854. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807-814-815-856>858-861. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ810. Gale Warning for PKZ811. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813-859. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816-851. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ817. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860. && $$