FXPQ50 PGUM 030709
AFDGUM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
509 PM ChST Sat May 3 2025

.Marianas Synopsis...
The radar shows isolated showers over the Marianas, limited mostly to 
Guam waters. Satellite imagery shows partly cloudy skies over the 
region. Ritidian buoy shows seas around 4 feet.

&&

.Discussion...
The CNMI is expected to remain in a dry pattern regime throughout 
this week. Guam is expected to see a slight uptick in showers and
a thunderstorm or two over the evening hours and during the diurnal 
max tonight. Once these showers pass out of Guam's region, a dry 
pattern regime will set up for the remainder of the forecast period. 

&&

.Marine...
Fairly benign seas are in store for the Marianas. Combined seas are
expected to remain around 4 to 6 feet through this week. A moderate 
risk of rip currents will remain along north and east facing reefs, 
while a low risk remains along south and west facing reefs. Surf 
along north and east facing reefs will rise by a foot as a weak north
swell pulse moves through the region. This pulse is anticipated to 
be fairly short lived and will return back down a foot and remain 
that way for the remainder of the week. 

&&

.Fire weather...
KBDI is 706 (extreme category), 0.10 inches of rain has fallen so 
far today and the lowest relative humidity value was 65 percent. 
This amount of rain so far is not enough to bring the KBDI down. 
Winds today have been 10 to 15 MPH with a few gusts to 20 MPH. This 
pattern is expected to continue through at least late in the latter 
half of this week. Critical fire weather conditions may be expected 
later in the week if the winds pick up and/or the relative humidity 
drops.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia...
Trade-wind convergence between 2N and 6N is producing scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms across the region. Pohnpei and 
Majuro are far enough north of said convergence zone, that showers 
remained spotty at both locations this afternoon. Kosrae sits on the
northern edge of the area of convergence, so while the heavier 
showers and isolated thunderstorms are mostly south of Kosrae, 
scattered showers are moving across the island. This band of 
convergence is expected to remain south of 6N through the beginning 
of the upcoming week; this will keep Majuro and the northern 
Marshall islands are expected to remain in a dry pattern, which will 
not help the ongoing drought conditions in the northern islands. 
Similar conditions are expected at Pohnpei, though a weak trough off 
to the east is expected to increase showers slightly later tonight. 
Kosrae is located slightly farther south and closer to the area of 
convergence compared to Pohnpei and Majuro, so it will see more 
showers overall and a slightly higher potential for isolated 
thunderstorms. Around Tuesday or Wednesday, models show the band of 
convergence lifting northward, increasing the potential of showers 
and thunderstorms across Pohnpei, Kosrae, and Majuro through the end 
of the week. The northern Marshall Islands are not expected to see 
much of an increase in showers, so do not expect much relief from 
ongoing dry conditions. Winds will also increase slightly around the 
same time across the region, but should not increase above 20 mph.

Altimetry data shows combined seas are 4 to 6 ft across the region, 
dominated by a east-northeast swell. As this swell builds slightly 
around Monday, Combined seas are expected to peak up to 7 feet, but 
should settle back to around 4 to 6 feet in the latter half of the 
week. Scatterometer data shows winds are gentle to moderate across 
the region. Winds will increase slightly and become moderate to fresh
over the next few days across the waters of Pohnpei and Majuro. 
Models keep winds slightly weaker across Kosrae's coastal waters.

&&

.Western Micronesia...
An unsettled weather pattern is expected to continue near Palau and
Yap for the next several days, bringing patchy showers,
thunderstorms, and gusty winds. Conditions are expected to begin to
improve sometime early next week, with a mostly drier trade-wind
regime to return through midweek. A slightly convergent trade-wind
regime will continue at Chuuk, bringing periods of isolated to low-
end scattered showers for much of the forecast period.

Combined seas of 3 to 5 feet near Palau and Yap, and 4 to 6 feet near
Chuuk for much of the forecast period. Seas may briefly increase
another foot near Chuuk when a pulse of a stronger trade swell makes
its way across the region.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...None.
MP...None.
Marianas Waters...None.
&&

$$

Marianas: Bowsher
East Micronesia: Schank
West Micronesia: Montvila