FXUS21 KWNC 011801 PMDTHR US Hazards Outlook NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 300 PM EDT May 01 2025 SYNOPSIS: Multiple model ensembles depict a broad area of mid-level high pressure over the northern Contiguous U.S. (CONUS) and southern Canada throughout the week-2 period, favoring anomalously warm and relatively quiet weather from a hazards perspective. Models also indicate a fairly wet pattern over the Southern Plains and Four Corners tied to a weak area of mid-level low pressure over the Southeastern U.S., although rainfall totals are not expected to reach hazardous criteria. HAZARDS DETAILED SUMMARY FOR SUNDAY MAY 04 - THURSDAY MAY 08: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php FOR FRIDAY MAY 09 - THURSDAY MAY 15: Ensemble means from the ECENS, GEFS, and CMCE all indicate persistent positive 500-hPa height anomalies along the U.S.-Canada border for much of the forecast period. This does favor anomalously warm temperatures, and the GEFS and ECMWF Probabilistic Extremes Tools (PETs) indicate the potential for maximum temperatures to exceed the 85th climatological percentile over portions of the Upper Midwest early in week-2, but absolute temperatures are not expected to exceed hazardous thresholds so no associated hazard is posted. At the outset of week-2 a weak mid-level trough is depicted over the Southeast U.S., associated with a stationary front over the region. Widespread rain and occasional isolated thunderstorms are favored to be associated with this pattern particularly at the beginning of week-2, although accumulation totals are not anticipated to reach hazardous thresholds. With ongoing flooding concerns over portions of the Southern Plains and Mississippi Valley, enhanced precipitation in the region brings the potential for new and renewed rises in river levels in areas previously affected by recent heavy rains and associated flooding. No flood hazard is posted at this time, but the situation will continue to be monitored. FORECASTER: Danny Barandiaran $$