FXUS24 KWNC 101304
PMDENS
El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
900 AM EST Thu 10 Apr 2025

NOTE: figures mentioned in the discussion are available on
the internet at HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ENSO Alert System Status: Final La Nina Advisory

Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is favored during the Northern
Hemisphere summer, with a greater than 50percent chance through
August-October 2025.

In March 2025, ENSO-neutral conditions returned, with
below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) weakening in the
central and east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1).
The westernmost Nino index values were near zero, while
positive index values persisted in the easternmost Nino-3
and Nino-1+2 regions (Fig. 2). Below-average subsurface
temperatures weakened (Fig. 3), but negative anomalies
continued in the central equatorial Pacific, extending to 250m
depth (Fig. 4). A shallow layer of above-average subsurface
temperatures continued in the far eastern equatorial Pacific.
Low-level wind anomalies remained easterly over the western
and central Pacific, while upper-level wind anomalies were
westerly over the central Pacific. Convection was suppressed
around the Date Line and was enhanced near Indonesia (Fig. 5).
The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation indices
were positive. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere
system reflected ENSO-neutral conditions.

The IRI and North American multi-model ensemble indicate
ENSO-neutral will continue through the summer (Fig. 6). The
forecast team also favors ENSO-neutral, with chances well over
50percent through summer 2025. Because of reduced forecast
accuracy in the spring, the uncertainty increases at longer
time horizons, with a 43percent chance of ENSO-neutral and
a 38percent chance of La Nina during November 2025 - January
2026 (chances of El Nino are under 20percent). In summary,
ENSO-neutral is favored during the Northern Hemisphere summer,
with a greater than 50percent chance through August-October 2025
(Fig. 7).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather
Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric
conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction
Center website (El Nino/La Nina Current Conditions and Expert
Discussions). Additional perspectives and analyses are also
available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast
is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is
scheduled for 8 May 2025. To receive an e-mail notification when
the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please
send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.



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