FXUS61 KAKQ 030053 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 853 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front approaches this weekend, but remains to our west. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected late Saturday into Sunday. Cooler temperatures with unsettled conditions will continue early next week in association with a slow moving/cutoff low pressure system. Shower chances likely linger through next Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... As of 855 PM EDT Friday... Key Message: - Isolated showers are possible overnight. Evening analysis shows low pressure over eastern Ontario with a nearly stationary cold front extending to the south and west. High pressure remains anchored off the Southeast coast. Aloft, the flow is southwesterly between a digging trough over the Midwest and ridging east of Florida. Nearly all of our CWA is dry this evening, though am noting a disorganized cluster of showers and embedded thunderstorms nearing our interior NE counties. With the loss of daytime heating, sfc-based instability is waning and SPC mesoanalysis shows developing inhibition across most of the area. Still, based on current radar trends, expect some of those showers/storms to push into NE NC over the next hour or so. Any severe threat has waned, so would only expect occasional lightning and heavy rain in any isolated storms. Through the rest of the night, forcing for ascent will remain displaced well W/NW of the area so confidence regarding any additional showers is low. Given various CAMs showing some showers around, will maintain a broad 20% PoP for most of the area overnight. Lows tonight will stay mild in the mid and upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Warm and dry for most of the day with increasing shower and storm chances across the Piedmont by late afternoon, spreading east overnight. - A few storms could be strong to severe, especially over the northwestern half of the area. The front slowly approaches the area from the west on Saturday as low level moisture increases. The upper trough becomes a closed low over the Midwest by Saturday afternoon. SPC has included the NW half of the area in a Marginal Risk for strong to severe storms with a Slight Risk just clipping western portions of Fluvanna and Louisa counties and points north and west. Warm again with highs generally in the mid 80s with partly cloudy skies. Modest height falls will move into the area by late afternoon, especially W. CAM guidance shows the potential for scattered strong to severe storms in the Piedmont by mid to late afternoon, generally lifting NNE into early evening. Strong straight line winds are the main threat but some hail up to 1 inch is also possible along with locally heavy rainfall. Guidance suggests these showers/storms will struggle to translate eastward until late evening or overnight when instability wanes. Thus, the severe threat is mostly confined to the NW half of the area. Showers with some embedded thunder spread east after midnight. QPF will be highest across the west, generally 0.25-0.5". Lows remain mild overnight, in the low 60s W to the mid 60s E. Rain and storms continue on Sunday with heavy rain and localized flooding becoming more of a concern than widespread severe weather as PW values climb to 1.5-1.7". Extensive clouds and precip will keep temps in the mid to upper 70s across the region. Low pressure occludes to the NW by late Sunday with the highest PoPs favored across the east and offshore Sunday night. Low temps fall into the upper 50s W to the low 60s for the remainder of the area. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 345 PM EDT Friday... Key Message: - Unsettled pattern continues into next week. Latest guidance continues to disagree with respect to how the closed upper low to the west will evolve/eject into early next week. Monday remains quite unsettled with additional periods of locally moderate to heavy rain possible across the region. Have maintained likely to categorical PoPs Monday and Monday night with some improvement possible from SW to NE on Tuesday. Models typically struggle to handle closed upper lows so details in this portion of the forecast remain highly uncertain. Will show temps in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees Monday, a few degrees warmer Tuesday. The upper low is forecast to lift NE of the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. Stayed close to the blended guidance mid to late week which keeps a low chance for showers/storms in the area. Suspect there will be a drier period Wed/Thurs with the next system approaching by Friday. Temperatures will stick near seasonal norms with highs in the 70s to low 80s and overnight lows in the 50s and 60s. && .AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 735 PM EDT Friday... Most of the area remains shower/storm-free this evening. The one exception is in NE NC where a cluster of strong storms have developed. Given their current motion, it seems unlikely that they would impact the ECG terminal. Will monitor, however, and make amendments as necessary. Otherwise, expecting mostly dry conditions through tonight with only a slight chc (~20%) of a shower. SSW winds 8-12 kt expected overnight, increasing to ~15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt late tomorrow morning and through the afternoon. SCT CU should also redevelop for the afternoon hours. Showers/storms potentially increase in coverage late in the day, but are expected to remain confined to the Piedmont and W of RIC. Outlook: Showers and storms likely spread east towards the terminals Saturday night. Unsettled weather pattern with periodic flight restrictions expected Sunday into early next week. && .MARINE... As of 400 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Raised SCAs for the Bay, sound, portions of the rivers, and the northern coastal waters Saturday afternoon into Saturday night ahead of an approaching low pressure system. - Sub-SCA conditions favored early next week with weak low pressure now expected to remain well inland. SSW winds have dropped off this aftn to around 10 kt (after being 10-15 kt with gusts around 20 kt earlier today). Expect winds to increase overnight to ~15kt with gusts to ~20kt, but again due to the marginal nature, refrained from issuing any SCAs through Saturday morning. Seas will avg. 3-4 ft N and 2-3 ft S, with waves 1-2 ft in the Bay. The pressure gradient tightens up a bit more with the approach of a low pressure system from the west later Saturday. At this time, seas are likely to build between 4 to 5 ft N of Cape Charles, with waves to ~3 ft in the Bay (up to 3-4 ft near the mouth of the Bay given a period with wind direction backing to the SSE). SCAs have been issued for much of the marine area later Sat aftn into Sat night. The gradient will tend to weaken by Sunday, with winds/seas diminishing to sub-SCA levels. Beyond the weekend, the models generally show a sfc trough lingering inland from the coast, with winds backing to the SSE, and remaining 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt through midweek. Seas will tend to continue in the 3-4 ft range. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Saturday to 4 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Saturday to 1 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ633-636>638. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RHR NEAR TERM...RHR/SW SHORT TERM...RHR LONG TERM...RHR AVIATION...SW MARINE...JDM/LKB