FXUS61 KBGM 031049 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 649 AM EDT Sat May 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A front will be stalled across the region today with cool and showery conditions for the Finger Lakes and central NY and warm and slightly muggy conditions in NE PA. A few stronger storms are possible this afternoon and evening in the Poconos with gusty winds and small hail being the main threat. Cool and showery conditions persist into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... 640 AM update... This afternoon is looking slightly better for storms in the Poconos as the 6Z models trended towards a bit more CAPE and that matches satellite where there is not many clouds on the warm side of the front. with east winds at ELM, the front may have pushed back west a bit as well and will need to watch obs through the day to see if it remains west or not. 340 AM Update Some clearing early this morning has allowed for a period of radiational cooling resulting in widespread valley fog. Rain is moving back into the area from the SW along a stalled frontal boundary extending from central PA, northeastward into the Adirondacks. Along and north of this boundary will likely be cool and rainy for most of the day with low clouds. South of the front, partial sunshine and warm air advection will raise temperatures into the 70s. CAPE is looking fairly impressive for NEPA into the Southern Catskills with 1000 to 1500 J/kg of most unstable CAPE. Wind shear is also good with 45 to 50 knots in the afternoon. Mid level lapse rates will be limiting for updraft acceleration as the 700-500 mb lapse rates this afternoon will be around 5.5 C/km. Some veering of the winds with height on the forecast sounding hodographs give potential for a storm to develop into marginal supercells in NEPA. The better environment is just to the S in NJ and south central PA. The main threat with storms this afternoon will be damaging winds and small hail. A weak tornado cant be ruled out as Lifted Condensation Levels are pretty low, less than 1000m for much of the day. Tonight, an upper level low gets cut off over the Ohio River Valley with southeasterly flow developing over NY and PA. This will advect in moisture through the night with scattered to widespread rain shower activity Saturday night through Sunday. Chances of thunder were lowered as the temperature profile becomes completely saturated with little to no cape. Waves of 500 mb vorticity swinging through will be the basis of lift for the showers in the overnight hours but day time heating on Sunday quickly leads to convective showers developing. Thunder chances were kept low Sunday as the shower activity will prevent any meaningful instability from developing. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A broad trough will still in place over the region Sunday night. Slow moving surface low pressure over the Ohio Valley will continue to send moisture northward into the region resulting in additional showers. Clouds once again look to result in another warm night with lows in the 50's. The surface low pressure only works slowly northward through Monday night with additional rounds of showers. With the clouds and rain most locations should continue to see temperatures in the 50's and 60's through Monday night. PW values do not impressive between 1-1.3 inches, keeping any flooding threat low. With most of the area at least abnormally dry recently this should be welcome rainfall. Some elevated instability is also showing up on soundings keeping the possibility for a thunderstorm or two. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The trough and surface low pressure system will only very slowly pull east Tuesday and Wednesday keeping around additional chances for showers. Given the clouds and rain, temperatures still look to be in the 50's and 60's. High pressure then tries to build into the region toward the end of the week with perhaps a mid-level disturbance and a few showers passing through Thursday. As the trough departs a shot of cold air advection should knock temperatures back a bit for Thursday and Friday. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Rain showers and low IFR cigs are likely for the Finger Lakes into CNY through most of the day and overnight. ITH and ELM are most likely to see predominantly IFR or worse the next 24 hours while AVP will be VFR until the front moves through this evening after 0Z. BGM will be on the edge and if the frontal boundary can shift west at all, there is potential for better conditions than what is in the TAF. SYR and RME will see cigs slowly fall this morning through 15Z before they become IFR and stay as rain showers continue to move through. Outlook... Sunday through Tuesday...Increasing threat of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms each day with associated restrictions. Wednesday...Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will still be around the area under an upper level low pressure system. Restrictions possible. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJG NEAR TERM...AJG SHORT TERM...MWG LONG TERM...MWG AVIATION...AJG