FXUS61 KBTV 281131
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
731 AM EDT Wed May 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
One more day of warm and dry weather today before active 
weather returns for Thursday through Sunday. A low pressure 
system will bring light rainfall to the region on Thursday. A 
more robust low will bring more widespread and possibly 
significant precipitation to the area on Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 715 AM EDT Wednesday...No big changes for the morning
update. Clear skies are in place and we did end up having just a
touch of fog form right around sunrise, but it has lifted
quickly. Previous discussion follows. 

Surface and upper level ridges will remain over our region 
today. It will be a pretty similar day to yesterday, but will 
probably have more clouds. Still, temperatures will reach the 
mid 70s to mid 80s with warm air advection ongoing. Have gone 
above guidance for the temperature forecast and below guidance 
for the dewpoints. RH will drop into the 20 percent range this 
afternoon across eastern Vermont. Clouds will also increase from
the south during the day. Rain showers will begin to move into 
the region overnight associated with a warm front lifting into 
our area ahead of next low pressure system. Light rain showers 
will continue across the area on Thursday. Precipitation will 
generally be light with this system, ranging from around a tenth
of an inch up to a quarter of an inch. Also not expecting 
convection with this system. Minimum temperatures overnight will
dip into the lower 40s to upper 50s. Highs on Thursday will be 
much cooler than the past couple days, topping out in the mid 
60s to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 355 AM EDT Wednesday...A few light showers are possible 
on Friday as diurnal heating will cause some surface based 
instability to reach up to around 7,000 feet. These low tops 
should keep any of the rain very light though. While there will 
be a weak shortwave that passes through as well, the dynamics do
not look strong enough to enhance these showers much, though it
will likely help enhance their coverage a bit. With the loss of
diurnal heating in the evening, these showers should fall apart
quickly, and dry conditions will mostly prevail for the first 
part of the night. Highs will be relatively seasonable, with 
temperatures rising into the 60s and 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 355 AM EDT Wednesday...A cutoff low approaching from the 
west will rejoin the circulation over the region Friday night 
into Saturday. This phasing will help deepen an incoming large 
scale trough and invigorate a shortwave pivoting around it. A 
potent surface low will develop with this shortwave over the 
Mid-Atlantic and move up into the region as another nor'easter 
on Saturday and Saturday night. While there is variation in the 
forecast storm track, ensemble means of minimum sea level 
pressure continue to favor the center of the low tracking from 
southern New England northeast into Maine, yet another storm 
that would take an ideal snow track if it was winter. This 
favored track is despite a westward shift in the deterministic 
GFS and NAM. The difference with this system compared to the one
at the end of last week as that it will be much faster moving, 
as the steady precipitation should mostly be out of the region 
less than 24 hours after it enters. Also, temperatures on summit
levels should still be too warm for snow, though it may be 
close for the highest peaks on the backside Saturday night. 
Precipitation should be less than last week's storm as well, 
with GEFS, EPS and CAN ensemble probabilities of more than an 
inch of rain only up to around 30 percent in the highest areas. 
With ensembles now mostly together with the synoptic setup and 
general placement of the low, it seems unlikely these 
probabilities would grow much more. Behind this low, the large 
scale troughing looks to remain for the rest of the weekend 
before ridging builds in for next week. Sunday therefore still 
looks cloudy with some shower chances due to moist cyclonic 
flow, but conditions will dry out for the start of the next work
week as the ridging builds in.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 12Z Thursday...Surface high pressure will provide our 7
TAF sites with VFR conditions and light terrain driven winds. 
Light winds become south/southwest at 4 to 8 knots, except 
southeast at RUT/PBG today. Clouds will increase from the south
and gradually lower, but mainly remain VFR through 12z Thursday.

Outlook...

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Definite RA.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Myskowski
AVIATION...Neiles