FXUS61 KILN 040254 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1054 PM EDT Sat May 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level low to track slowly from the Middle Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley bringing cool, cloudy, and rainy conditions into the region through Monday. Isolated to scattered showers linger on Tuesday as the low departs the area with drier conditions returning toward midweek. Much below normal temperatures will persist until a warmup develops at midweek. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Relative lull in precipitation over the region as the dominant low pivoting over western KY. Overnight the upper low will slowly push into cntral KY, continuing cyclonic flow through the area. Overnight wrap around moisture will bring a return to showers, but slowed this down from previous forecast. Current shower activity ramping up across eastern KY and working into northern KY will continue to lift north and fill in more across the northern forecast area especially after 06z. Low tonight to range from the mid 40s northwest to the lower 50s southeast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Mid/upper level low over western KY at daybreak Sunday is expected to track slowly east across KY and then rotate into the Tri-State region Sunday night. Several narrow arcing axes of rain showers will pivot to the north across the area as the cutoff low meanders across KY. The best coverage of rain looks to occur across the souther counties - closer to the low. e main concern will be the slow moving nature of the pcpn elements may lead to spotty/ISO in nature. Under mainly cloudy skies temperatures will only rise to highs from the mid 50s northwest to the mid 60s southeast. Rain shower coverage to decrease Sunday night but a chance threat will persist thru the night. Lows are expected to be generally in the upper 40s to around 50. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A vertically-stacked cutoff low remains over the Ohio Valley Monday into Tuesday before progressing northeast. Cool, cloudy, and showery conditions persist. Beyond Tuesday night the forecast exhibits uncertainty. There appears to be a brief break from upper level troughing for the midweek when westerlies strengthen. This may allow a reprive from moderate to high end shower chances and some warmer temperatures to develop. However, troughing appears likely to up southwest of the Ohio Vally toward the Gulf states for the end of the week in the form of a cutoff low. This upper level pattern coincides with northerly low level flow and below average temperatures in the Ohio Valley. There is a chance the troughing sets up far enough south that the ridging, and warmer air, north of the trough could work into the area but that seems fairly unlikely at this time. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... With the area dominated by a meandering upper level low over the mid MS Valley, MVFR to occasionally IFR cigs through the period, some potential for LIFR cigs. Visibility will generally be VFR to occasionally MVFR in showers. Earlier wind gusts associated with some low level convergence on a weakening trend, so wind gusts expected to diminish a bit overnight, though remain generally above 10kts. After 12z, MVFR to occasionally IFR cigs prevail, with PROB30 shra through much of the daylight hours. OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGs may persist at times through Monday and Tuesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...JDR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...Campbell AVIATION...JDR