FXUS61 KRLX 021549 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 1149 AM EDT Fri May 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Strong to severe thunderstorms expected again this afternoon and evening. Chances of showers and thunderstorms at times through the weekend and into the next work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1149 AM Friday... Period is characterized by a digging upper trough to our west, and a surface low that will eject northeast into the region along a frontal boundary progged to be draped across the Great Lakes to Lower Ohio Valley region. Out ahead of this feature, isolated to scattered strong storms can be expected with increasing instability across the area. These storms will pose a damaging wind, and perhaps severe hail threat across the area, with freezing levels hovering at around 11k feet, and -20 at 21k feet. Main event/greater coverage of convection still looks to be later this evening and tonight, as low and cold front move into the area, with mcs moving into the area. In addition to the continued severe threat, which hopefully will be waning somewhat as it progresses eastward with time, heavy downpours will continue to be possible, with strong forcing and pw values around the 90th percentile. WPC still has parts of western/northern zones in a marginal risk for excessive, and expect the possibility for localized flooding issues to develop in areas that would receive repetitive convection and low lying spots. Storms should be on the move overall which should help to limit any sort of widespread issues. Greatest risk area for severe with this complex looks to be far western zones. Showers and storms continue across the area on Saturday as upper low/trough continues to sag south across the midwest, with moist southerly flow continuing across the area, and wave of low pressure moving north through the CWA. Although chances for severe are lower, an isolated strong to severe storm cannot be completely ruled out, depending on how much instability is able to be realized. Regardless the threat for heavy downpours and flooding potential will continue, particularly with the front potentially hanging around across our area. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 AM Friday... A frontal boundary will remain in our vicinity over the weekend as an upper level low to our west becomes a cut off low. This will allow for numerous showers and thunderstorms. With much of the area already wet from previous showers and thunderstorms, there is an elevated concern for flash flooding. The upper level low will remain nearly stationary through Monday, before starting to shift either northward or eastward Monday night. Models do vary on how this low will shift based on how a low over the southwestern United States begins to shift. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 230 AM Friday... An upper low pressure system will shift away from the area on Tuesday and Wednesday, although models differ on exactly how that will happen. Some models show enough moisture left behind for some mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms, but lesser chances than over the weekend. Another upper level low over the southwestern US may shift into the central US toward the end of the week, although models are struggling with the handling of this system. That leads to uncertainty as to when the more robust moisture will return to the area, and hence a lower confidence in the forecast for the end of the work week. && .AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 557 AM Friday... VFR resumes this morning under broken to scattered CU. By mid to late morning, SW'rly winds pick up to a steady breeze, which will prevail into the afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon ahead of the main line that will arrive later. Allowed VCTS at a few sites where lower confidence on timing exists. The line of storms is expected to move in from the west again this evening. Current timing is between ~23 and ~03z. Storms today/tonight could be strong to severe with damaging wind gusts and hail up to 1.00" to 1.25". MVFR/IFR restrictions are likely in and around any thunderstorms. Showers and thunderstorms will persist behind the line as the driving cold front stalls along our western border. As a result, heavy rainfall will be possible late Friday going into Saturday. MVFR/IFR restrictions are anticipated overnight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, location, and intensity of showers and thunderstorms today and tonight could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M L M H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... IFR conditions are possible with showers and storms at times through Monday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MEK/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...LTC