FXUS62 KCAE 031206 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 806 AM EDT Sat May 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Widespread showers and thunderstorms expected again Saturday afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. Some severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday afternoon into the evening with strong gusty winds and very heavy rain. The front will slow into Sunday with some lingering showers possible. Cooler but still some rain showers expected next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Message(s): - Scattered-widespread convection is expected today across the forecast area. - A few severe thunderstorms are possible, particularly in the central, eastern Midlands and Pee Dee. A strong, deepening mid-level trough is digging to our west across the MS Valley with a broad region of diffluence and synoptic scale lift downstream of the trough axis. As a result a series of a shortwaves moving through this parent trough are producing round after round of diurnally driven MCS's across the South. This pattern will continue into Saturday but with additional synoptic support over our area as the trough slides east. While the timing of these shortwaves and decaying MCS's is tricky, it looks like Saturday will have one round of convection within the prefrontal trough mid-later afternoon, followed by an MCS associated with the surface front later in the evening. The prefrontal trough convection will develop within a region of modest height falls, PWAT's around 1.25", and surface temps into the mid-upper 80's. While there are differences across guidance (i.e. RRFS vs HREF), at least some destabilization will occur with 1000+ ML CAPE and well mixed BL up through 850-700mb. Despite a very strong trough, shear will be fairly limited with only 30 knots or so of cloud layer shear; so overall, a pulse-like environment with some organized segments looks likely based on the aforementioned ingredients. The residual cold pool from the overnight-morning MCS outflow will settle into the Midlands somewhere, with convection in the prefrontal trough focused along and east of this. So, confidence is generally highest in a severe threat for both intensity and coverage in the central-eastern Midlands extending into the Pee Dee area. Generally damaging winds and heavy rain looks to be the primary threats given a relative lack of hail growth CAPE or mid-level dry air (compared to Friday). The trailing MCS will push into the region later in the evening, with confidence lower in the severe potential due to prefrontal convection scouring out any instability, but certainly potential will continue well into the evening. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Key Message(s): - Thunderstorms with isolated damaging winds still possible Sunday afternoon. The upper low pretty much comes to a dead stop on Sunday, so the cold front will slow down dramatically as well near or just east of the CWA. That will set up a surface convergence zone that will allow the reformation of thunderstorms Sunday afternoon into the early evening, before the front makes a final push offshore. PW values will be down quite a bit as drier air works in aloft on the south side of the upper low, but that will allow for some surface heating, increasing the low level CAPE high enough to support widely scattered convection. The front will continue to creep away from the area Sunday night and Monday as the stubborn Ohio Valley cutoff only drifts northward, but it should move enough to keep most if not all convection to the north and east of the CWA. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Key Message(s): - Mostly dry conditions for the first half of the week. - Isolated to scattered rain chances return by the second half of the week. A weak bubble of high pressure moves in for Tuesday as a modest upper ridge between the slowly departing upper low to the northeast and the next upper low back over the central plains sets up. The ridge should hold on into Wednesday, although high clouds from the system to the west may be on the increase. Thursday and Friday look to be a bit more unsettled the next slow moving upper low approaches from the west. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions expected this morning, with widespread t-storms expected this afternoon and evening with associated restrictions. Winds are starting between 3-6 kts this morning from the south to the south-southeast but the CAE VAD profile is showing near 40 kts of southerly flow around 1,000 ft and thus I have added mention of LLWS at CAE/CUB for this morning before southerly winds pick up to 10-12 kts this afternoon with gusts toward 20-23 kts possible. Some scattered low clouds are seen in the region as broken to overcast mid and high clouds are beginning to overspread the area from the west. VFR conditions into the early afternoon are expected before restrictions are expected with scattered to widespread showers-storms moving in for the afternoon and evening. Confidence remains high for this activity and thus have maintained a TEMPO group for thunderstorms and MVFR restrictions from 20z through 0z with a prevailing group starting at 0z, lasting until 4z for thunderstorms at all sites. In general MVFR visibility and possible ceiling restrictions with storms can be expected but sporadic IFR-LIFR visibility restrictions could be possible in heavier storms. Some isolated to scattered showers may continue into the early overnight but model guidance has continued to show that as a cold front approaches overnight and into Sunday morning, abundant low level moisture brings scattered to broken low clouds toward the end of the TAF period with possible MVFR-IFR ceiling restrictions. Have added mention of scattered low clouds at this time, but will continue to monitor guidance trends before the next update. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Sunday may start with some ceiling restrictions at all sites before possible thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening could cause temporary restrictions at CAE, CUB, and especially OGB. VFR expected for the first half of next week outside of any early morning patchy ground fog. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$