FXUS62 KJAX 032355 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 755 PM EDT Sat May 3 2025 ...New AVIATION... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 755 PM EDT Sat May 3 2025 Isolated, brief showers may impact the regional terminals this evening. Confidence was too low to indicate sub-VFR conditions, with vicinity coverage expected. A line of showers and embedded thunderstorms will approach our region from the northwest after 06Z. This line may weaken as it moves across our regional terminals, with higher chances for thunderstorms and briefly gusty winds at GNV towards 10Z, with confidence elsewhere not high enough to indicate thunderstorm impacts at this time. PROB30 groups were used at the terminals during the predawn and morning hours to indicate MVFR conditions as this activity moves across our area. Showers and thunderstorms should then redevelop during the early to mid afternoon hours, with lower confidence for impacts at GNV, where vicinity coverage was maintained. PROB30 groups for briefly gusty winds and MVFR conditions due to thunderstorms and downpours were used elsewhere after 17Z Sunday. Activity is expected to move offshore towards the end of this TAF period. Southerly surface winds of 5-10 knots this evening will diminish after 06Z. Southwesterly surface winds will develop towards sunrise, with speeds increasing to 10-15 knots by 16Z. A pinned Atlantic sea breeze boundary will shift surface winds to southerly at the SSI and SGJ coastal terminals after 17Z. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Tonight) Issued at 212 PM EDT Sat May 3 2025 High pressure will move away to the east northeast Today. A surface trough of low pressure is expected to move southeast across forecast area this afternoon. This trough, combined with diurnal heating and sea breeze interactions will continue to produce precipitation. The greatest chances for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will be across SE GA where an upper trough will add to instability, and along the east coast due to convergence along the sea breeze. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible, mainly over SE GA. Highs Today will range from the lower to mid 80s coast, to the mid to upper 80s inland. A cold front will move southeast into forecast area overnight. Convection is expected to develop along and ahead of this front. Lows Tonight will range from the lower to mid 60s inland, to the mid to upper 60s coast. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 212 PM EDT Sat May 3 2025 Weak cold front will just be entering our forecast area Sunday morning and continue to slowly move east to southeast during the day. Sufficient moisture and daytime destabilization will lead to scattered to numerous showers and some thunderstorms as the front enters our area. CAM models show isolated to scattered convection in the morning mainly east and southeast portions of the area, with afternoon activity increasing given daytime heating. Effective bulk shear values of about 25 to around 30 kt may support some storm organization amidst MLCAPE approaching 1500 J/kg, mainly toward the coast where the sea breeze may provide better upward motions. Strong gusty winds and marginal severe hail are the main concerns. Highs in the lower to mid 80s anticipated. Sunday night, convection should wane in the evening over the east and southeast zones as the airmass continues to dry out and the frontal boundary sags south to about a St Augustine to Gainesville line. Some patchy fog will be possible toward Marion, Putnam, and Alachua counties. Overnight lows in the upper 50s over southeast GA where less clouds will be present, and about 60-65 deg for northeast FL and coastal southeast GA. Monday, remnants of the weak front over northeast FL stalls out but will become diffuse as the mean mid level trough moves out and heights rise over the region. Some low-end chances of showers and storms linger on Monday mainly for northeast FL, but the airmass is drier compared to the weekend with PWAT values down to around 1.2 inches centered from Marion, Putnam, to Flagler counties, where the drought conditions are worse compared to the rest of the area. Highs in the lower to mid 80s anticipated. Monday night, mostly clear skies with weak high pressure system just north of the area and the remnant front drifting slightly northward over the area. Looks mostly dry overnight with light patchy fog possible and lows will be in the upper 50s north to lower 60s south, and lower to mid 60s coast. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 212 PM EDT Sat May 3 2025 The weak front over the area will lift northward on Tuesday as the surface high pressure over GA and SC heads northeast. Probably too dry for much of any mentionable precip at this time. The front will move into southeast GA Wednesday and Wednesday night while weak shortwave disturbances aloft ride east-northeast over the southeast states. There is some moisture recovery on Wednesday into early Thursday as the front lingers over parts of GA and with potential for a stronger upper disturbance moving across our forecast area by mid to late week, we have continued to advertise increased chances of showers and storms. From Thursday to Friday, it may be a bit optimistic, but a new cold front and the remnant front over GA along with a mid/upper level troughing looks to support an even better setup for rain...so we are advertising good rain chances for this period of about 40-65 percent. Max temperatures for Tuesday through Wednesday will be above normal given the mostly dry weather, but by Thursday and especially on Friday, the presence of more clouds, lowering 700 mb and 850 mb heights, and added showers and storms the max temps will be lowering toward normal. Lows will mostly be in the 60s. && .MARINE... Issued at 212 PM EDT Sat May 3 2025 High pressure will move away to the east northeast Today. A cold front will move southeast into region Tonight, and slowly cross area waters Sunday into Monday. The front will move south of area Monday night, before lifting back north across area as a warm front mid week. Rip Currents: Moderate Today, Low Sunday && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 212 PM EDT Sat May 3 2025 High daytime dispersions are the main concerns besides some occasionally breezy southwest winds with gusts of about 25 mph. Higher rain chances are expected rest of today through Sunday which will hopefully help given the recent dry spell over the area. Unfortunately, we dry out again for most areas Mon-Tue, with some uptick in moisture and rain chances beginning by Wednesday and into Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 62 82 56 82 / 50 30 0 0 SSI 67 81 62 82 / 30 60 30 10 JAX 65 86 61 85 / 30 60 20 20 SGJ 67 86 65 84 / 30 70 30 40 GNV 65 85 61 87 / 40 60 10 30 OCF 65 85 63 88 / 50 60 20 40 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$