FXUS62 KMFL 021220 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 820 AM EDT Fri May 2 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 808 AM EDT Fri May 2 2025 Scattered showers over the nearshore Atlantic are moving onshore mainly across Palm Beach and northern Broward counties this morning, an indication of a slowly moistening trend in the low level E-SE wind. Increased PoPs slightly into the 20-30% range across these areas to account for this. These showers will be rather brief and shouldn't produce more than about a quarter-inch. Moisture remains too shallow for significant convection so kept thunder chances at 10% or less. The remainder of the area should remain dry through at least mid-afternoon. The inland-moving Gulf seabreeze will likely trigger a few showers late this afternoon over portions of inland SW Florida, so added a 20% PoP across these areas. As with the east coast showers, lightning chances should remain quite low, but with extra low level instability due to afternoon heating, a lightning strike or two is not out of the question. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 142 AM EDT Fri May 2 2025 South Florida remains on the periphery of surface high pressure centered over the Atlantic. An area of low pressure is developing over the central United States will begin to pinch the high eastward. While the general pattern will keep the potential for more stout convection like thunderstorms more limited today, that may begin to change for Saturday. Shallow moisture could support some shower activity with a focus over the waters this morning that spreads inland and then west through the afternoon and evening. Coverage increases for Saturday as will temperatures with a range from the mid to upper 80s across Southeast Florida and coastal Southwest Florida to the lower 90s across inland Southwest Florida. A mid-level shortwave and additional atmospheric moisture will create a more favorable environment for convection compared to previous days. The presence of the sea breezes will also come into play with the collision over the interior serving as a potential focus for afternoon and evening convection. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 157 AM EDT Fri May 2 2025 A pattern change is on the horizon for South Florida this weekend as a negatively tilted trough amplifies and digs across the southeastern United States on Saturday. In response to the approach of this feature, mid-level flow will begin to veer to a southwesterly component as previously stout anticyclonic flow wanes and abates. At the surface, the arrival of a weak surface frontal boundary across the northeastern Gulf and southeastern United States on Saturday will bring a pool of deeper atmospheric moisture across the region. As the aforementioned boundary washes out across the region over the weekend into early next week, mesoscale processes (sea-breezes) will continue each afternoon with background mid-level flow influencing where these boundary interactions occur. During the first half of the weekend, mid-level flow aloft will still be fairly light, which will act to focus the foci of any convective activity over the central part of the peninsula. However by Sunday, increasing mid-level flow around the base of the mid-level trough will focus afternoon showers (and perhaps a few thunderstorms) over the eastern half of the region. This pattern will continue each afternoon as residual moisture along the frontolytic boundary provides enough of a spark when combined with peak diurnal heating to get varying levels of afternoon convective activity. Instability will gradually increase during this time frame and with the arrival of a colder pocket (-13C to -14C at 500mb) of mid-level air on Monday, could support the potential of more robust thunderstorm activity during the afternoon hours given steeper mid-level lapse rates. Things can certainly change as we remain a few days out, but definitely something to keep tabs on over the next several days. Drier air advects into the region beginning on Tuesday as mid-level flow veers fully to a northwesterly direction bringing a continental airmass into the region which may taper rain chances beyond that point. Given the relaxing of the pressure gradient across the region during the first half of the weekend, temperatures will trend slightly warmer with highs in the middle to upper 80s along both coasts and highs in the low 90s across inland southwest Florida. A similar regime will play out on Sunday with the caveat that an increase in cloud cover and shower activity could keep areas a bit cooler than Saturday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 808 AM EDT Fri May 2 2025 VFR conditions expected through the period. A few SHRA moving onshore in the FLL-PBI corridor through 16z may produce brief ceilings in the 3,000-3,500 ft range. Additional isolated SHRA over interior peninsula 21z-01z should stay away from terminals. A few SHRA possible with similar ceiling reductions in the 06z-12z time frame favoring FLL-PBI terminals. Wind 100-110 degrees 10-12 knots gusting to near 20 knots, except SW seabreeze at KAPF 17z-01z. && .MARINE... Issued at 142 AM EDT Fri May 2 2025 Easterly to southeasterly flow will persist across the local waters through the weekend and into early next week. There may be periods where cautionary conditions develop, particularly over the Atlantic with overnight easterly wind surges. Otherwise, shower and thunderstorm activity could also present localized hazardous conditions for mariners. && .BEACHES... Issued at 142 AM EDT Fri May 2 2025 Persistent easterly flow will keep the rip current risk high along the Atlantic beaches of South Florida heading into the weekend. When in doubt, don't go out! && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 83 74 85 74 / 0 10 20 20 West Kendall 85 70 87 70 / 0 10 20 20 Opa-Locka 85 72 87 72 / 0 10 20 20 Homestead 83 72 85 73 / 0 10 20 10 Fort Lauderdale 82 73 82 73 / 20 10 20 20 N Ft Lauderdale 82 73 83 72 / 20 10 20 20 Pembroke Pines 87 74 88 74 / 10 10 20 20 West Palm Beach 82 71 84 72 / 30 20 20 30 Boca Raton 84 72 85 72 / 20 20 20 20 Naples 86 68 87 70 / 10 10 10 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168-172- 173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Molleda SHORT TERM...Garcia LONG TERM....99 AVIATION...Molleda